Is the race for the GOP nomination already over?
The Republican National Convention is scheduled for August 27th through the 30th, 2012 in Tampa, Florida. Delegates from all the fifty states will decide on who the person is that should run against President Barack Obama. I expect turnout to be above average as the electorate seems to be more polarized now than in recent years. While in the past, some voters have felt one party or another had to go, this time, there's that plus the issues (to some) of us having a Socialist, a Muslim and a Radical that needs to go. The thought of Barack Obama winning reelection is quite unsettling to some.
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There are daily headlines regarding this field of eight or so candidates for the honor of facing off against Obama in 2012. Make no mistake, no matter who of these eight people wind up with the party's official nomination, ALL will be working toward putting their guy in office. There are jobs to be had, within the potentially new administration and, frankly jobs to be had in the media. To fade away after falling out of contention for the nomination will, I think, carry a high price tag.
A coherent argument could be made that this is already a done deal. While the polls tell us Governor Perry is in the lead, remember that polls are merely a snapshot of how things look today. The real poll isn't for another fourteen months and that one counts. There will be much gnashing of teeth and both dollars and words expended over the next few months, to be sure. I'm not so sure it will matter a great deal.
I say Mitt Romney has the nomination all but locked up.
Barring a scandal or some unforeseen blunder of epic proportions, I see no path where someone else defeats him.
Tim Pawlenty was supposed to, some felt, be a guy who could match Romney. As the debates started, Tpaw talked a pretty good game and at the second GOP debate, he had a golden opportunity to deliver a direct hit to Romney over his health care plan in Massachusetts. Pawlenty mumbled and for the most part, passed on this chance. Romney was exposed, Pawlenty had a clear shot but refused to take it. For that reason and a few others, mostly financial, we waved goodbye to Mr. Pawlenty several weeks ago.
Next it was Michelle Bachmann who was supposed to be a real threat to Romney. Possessing better and more established street cred among hard core conservatives, we wondered how that matchup might go down. It never materialized. On the day that Bachmann was riding high in Iowa after winning the straw poll, the fortunes of Mrs. Bachmann was undercut by a new face in the race. A savvy Texan strode into Iowa the same weekend Bachmann won and sucked all the air out of Bachmann's balloon. The Bachmann campaign has not been the same since. As Bachmann quickly became virtually irrelevant overnight, Mitt Romney no longer had to waste any bullets on her. Rick Perry took care of that for him.
Speaking of Rick Perry...
Gov. Perry attractiveness seemed to peak somewhere around the time he declared his intention on seeking the nomination. Yes, the polls have been kind to him but he's drawn all the fire that may have been aimed at Gov. Romney. Debating does not seem to be his strong suit and he looked flat out bad the last two debates. His attempt to expose Romney as a guy who changes his tune based on statements in his books, fell flat. It was like he had marbles in his mouth or something. He seems so uncomfortable, so ill-prepared compared to Romney that I don't think a few weeks of debate prep will totally address. He can do better, certainly. Whether he can do so much better as to nullify his recent performances is a question I look forward to seeing answered.
Romney needs a Southern strategy to defeat Obama in the general, and a Romney/Perry ticket would be a very tough one to overcome. Perry would bring along the Tea Party base and give comfort to those who doubt Romney's allegiance to the conservative ideology. If Romney seems to take it easy on Perry over the next few debates, it could be because he wants him to be able to accept a VP offer. If he destroys Perry, then I think that's a signal that Romney has some other idea in mind for both a Southern strategy and a VP nomination. (Marco Rubio anyone?)
That leaves five other known candidates that Romney has to defeat. I see four of them, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and John Huntsman in a group of candidates that can't win the nomination and simply don't match up to Gov. Romney in terms of financial support, size of organisations, boots on the ground, status, etc. Paul has a message that resonates with a small but passionate group of voters, but doesn't seem to have the ability to grow his popularity in any serious way. Santorum has some conservative credentials but again lacks in almost every way when compared to Romney. Gingrich's campaign is a mess. Deeply in debt, mass defections, poor poll numbers, etc. all point towards a failed campaign for the former Speaker of the House. Huntsman showed a glimmer of hope a couple debates ago, but hasn't really demonstrated an ability to capitalize on it whatsoever. Horrific poll numbers, despite his obvious intelligence, the Huntsman campaign seems to be going nowhere fast.
Which leaves us Mr. Herman Cain...
Mr. Cain surprised many with his victory in the Florida straw poll last weekend. Today, a Zogby poll shows Cain ahead of everybody. By a healthy margin of 10% over Perry and 11% over Romney. Its interesting to note this poll was conducted after the Orlando poll but before the straw poll results were announced. Cain is riding high right now and may bump Perry out of the spotlight. As nice as all of this is for the Cain supporters, I have to believe the sheer size of the Romney organisation and coffers means at some point, Cain's campaign is going to run into a wall.
Many questions remain.
Will Romney have to fend off a serious challenge from anyone? Will it be Perry? Cain? Booth of them/none of them? Hard to say, but whatever they throw at Romney, I don't see it doing enough damage to really matter. As long as Mitt Romney can avoid the landmines and nothing scandalous comes out, I think he's the Republican Party's nomination for President in 2012.
