Mitt Romney Can Absolutely Win...

Prior to last week's first Presidential Debate between incumbent Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney, it seemed that this race was drawing to a close. President Obama had enjoyed success in portraying Romney as an out of touch money-man who would drag the country back to the same failed policies that in large part, were responsible for where we find ourselves today. Despite a mediocre, weak economic recovery and unemployment numbers still above 8%, Mr. Obama had a fairly substantial lead that for many of his supporters, seemed almost too good to be true. Turns out it was exactly too good to be true.

Mitt Romney, on the other hand, had experienced a few rough months. A clumsy looking visit to England during the Olympics caused many to wonder aloud about Romney's ability to represent America across the pond. While a small thing overall, there was bad press. Then came a pleasant Republican Convention, which failed to produce the vaunted "bump" in the polls the Party so badly wanted. All of which was nothing compared to the firestorm that erupted after the release of the infamous secret video of Romney commenting on the "47%." That took Romney off message for the better part of two weeks, during which time President Obama built his most commanding lead yet. Worse yet, Romney seemed to be losing ground in many of the battleground states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, which are key to any chance he has to win the White House in November. Everything was looking bad. But things were about to get better.

The first Presidential debate was widely predicted to see Romney, with nothing to lose, swinging for the fences, while Obama would likely play defense at least some of the night. There was belief that Romney was vulnerable on the details of his tax plan and that Obama would almost certainly explore that, while also forcing the challenger to explain his 47% comment and perhaps also explain his role at Bain Capital. Both men had a "hit list" of things to go after, which should have made for riveting television.

By now, we all know how the debate went for both men. For President Obama, it was a head-scratcher, to say the least. He never showed any willingness to attack the 47% comments, Bain Capital was never even mentioned. Nor did he seem very interested in attacking Romney's sudden but predictable, move to the center. For candidate Romney, it was the performance of a lifetime. While seemingly re-inventing himself in front of the American people, Romney looked prepared, composed and one step ahead of the President most of the evening. Polls in the days after the debate have rewarded the challenger handsomely for his performance. For many Americans that night, Mitt Romney may have closed the sale.

Any talk of the race being over have been dismissed. Polls are tightening across the country and most importantly in the battleground states, where this election will be decided. Its still probably better to be in Obama's shoes than Romney's, but the notion that Romney was fading away has been proven to be wrong. Romney's execution in the debate is paying huge dividends to his campaign. We hear talk of a different strategy from the Obama campaign for the next meet-ups, but I'm not sure anything can unwind the effect of the first one. A repeat of the fiasco last week would do major harm to his re-election chances.

The unemployment numbers falling below 8.0% last Friday were a good thing for the President. Plus, he seemed to rebound very quickly and seemed his old self in campaign appearances last Friday and through the weekend. President Obama must do better in the next two debates. I think if he succeeds and nothing unknown crashes down upon him, he will likely win re-election by a close margin. If the headlines after the next debate and/or the final one favor Romney, then it seems we'll be in for a too close to call election night.

Too many on the left were declaring success a few weeks ago and belittling Mr. Romney's ability to take down the President. What they in many cases under-estimated was Romney's salesmanship. As Romney recreates himself, even if in image or perception only, it seems to be working. Certainly working better than any prior approach. Its almost as if the far right of the party finally said, "it's ok, Mitt...go move to the center and win us the election."

Which is exactly what Mr. Romney just might do.

Answer This: Nate Silver - Patrick Gavin - POLITICO.com

Short but informative Q&A with Nate Silver, author of the 538 Blog of the New York Times...

Answer This: Nate Silver - Patrick Gavin - POLITICO.com:

Dr. Barbara Bellar - Trading Integrity for Votes?

Dr. Barbara Bellar is a candidate for State Senate in Illinois's 18th District. She is a long time physician who also has military service, teaching experience and is also a licensed attorney in Illinois. She was also a Benedictine Nun for five years. She seems to be a serious person claiming to be a serious candidate for public office in the land of Lincoln.

Recently, Mrs. Bellar has been the focus of national media attention, especially Fox News, mostly due to a video of some remarks she made about Obamacare at a rally for Illinois Women for Romney/Ryan. (She was on Greta Van Susteren's show last night and will appear on Lou Dobbs show tonight.) Her remarks build off of one particular sentence that sort of gets the ball rolling in her speech:

We’re going to be gifted with a healthcare plan we are forced to purchase, and fined if we don’t, which purportedly covers at least 10 million more people, without adding a single new doctor, but provides for 16,000 new IRS agents, written by a committee whose chairman says he doesn’t understand it, passed by a congress that didn’t read it but exempted themselves from it, and signed by a president who smokes, with funding same sentence – with funding administered by a treasury chief who didn’t pay his taxes, for which we will be taxed for four years before any benefits take effect, by a government which has already bankrupted social security and medicare, all to be overseen by a surgeon general who is obese and (laughing & applause) and financed by a country that’s broke. 

Dr. Barbara Bellar-Candidate for Illinois State Senate

Where to begin?

The fact checkers are having a field day with Dr. Bellar, as almost everything in that sentence is factually incorrect.

Let's break down that sentence and see how it holds up...

"We’re going to be gifted with a healthcare plan we are forced to purchase, and fined if we don’t,..."

Wrong - If you have health insurance, you are not forced by the ACA to change plans. If you don't have insurance and can afford it, you will be expected to purchase it. The "fines" she speaks of are pooled into a fund that will help pay for uninsured people who require healthcare, which the public winds up paying for.

"which purportedly covers at least 10 million more people..."

Wrong - The ACA is expected to help 30 million, not ten million, acquire health insurance, many of whom are currently accessing their healthcare through the most expensive of ways, the emergency room. 

"without adding a single new doctor,"

Wrong - According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, 15,000 new doctors should be in place by 2015. 

"provides for 16,000 new IRS agents...,"

Wrong - According to the Factcheck.com, this is considered "wildly inaccurate." Its assumes every penny of money allocated to the IRS would be spent on new employees and every single one of them would be an "agent." 

Read more fact-checking of Bellar's remarks here...

Watch Dr. Bellar's comments in full:


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What troubles me greatly about Mrs. Bellar's comments is the blatent and bold-faced mis-information she puts forth as truth. She does so, obviously in an attempt to position herself as the credible, conservative candidate who will make life better for those in her State. Her disregard for factual information, given her position in our society, I find offensive and self-serving. She's apparently sold her soul in an attempt to attain public office. She brings shame to her profession and her career.

From her website's homepage:

This is the kind of person we need to turn Illinois around. 
This is the kind of person who will truly represent her constituents.
This is the kind of person of integrity and character that Illinois needs. 

The last line says it all. 

Sources:

http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Closer-Look-Hit-video-criticizes-Obamacare-3887431.php

Fact Checking the Presidential Debate - NationalJournal.com

Comprehensive fact-check of last night's debate from National Journal. Plenty of issues with both participants answers: 

The first presidential debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney on Wednesday night in Denver covered topics ranging from taxes to health care to job creation. Here is a look at some of their statements and how firmly they are grounded in fact.

Romney on health care spending:

Romney claimed that middle-income Americans are spending $2,500 more for health care now than they did when Obama took office in 2008. While Americans are spending more for their insurance and overall health spending since 2008, the difference is closer to $1,000, not $2,500. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, the average employee purchasing family health insurance in 2012 paid $4,316 for insurance, just under $1,000 more than what they paid for insurance in 2008. Total per capita health expenditures had about the same $1,000 spread between 2008 and 2012, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. In 2008, CMS found Americans spent $7,910 per capita on health care; in 2012, they are estimated to spend $8,952."

Read the full article: Fact Checking the Presidential Debate - NationalJournal.com:

The Night Belongs to Mitt Romney...

There is no question who had the better night in Denver this evening in the first Presidential debate between incumbent Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney.

The former Governor of Massachusetts won with a surprisingly adept, competent performance.

Romney came out of the gate strong and was able to challenge President Obama's polices, many of which he considers failed, without appearing nasty or mean. Romney succeeded in presenting himself as a "credible alternative" to viewers, while President Obama seemed rusty, to say the least. The Republican nominee maintained strong eye contact with his opponent while looking confident. His answers were, on the surface at least, concise, orderly and straight-forward. Mr. Romney committed no discernable gaffes and all in all thrilled his supporters by exceeding expectations.

President Obama on the other hand, did not seem to have a very good night. The President's answers were long-winded, rambling, meandering and lacked emotion. Perhaps "professorial" almost. Rarely did the President look at his opponent during his responses. Whereas Romney seemed to be the aggressor from the get-go, the President was on the defensive most of the night. There was no full-throated defense of the stimulus, his jobs created, he failed to make the case for bail-out of the auto-industry, never brought up Bain Capital, Romney's "47%" comments. etc. Obama was not on his game tonight and it showed.

Substance wise however, there may be some fall-out for the Romney team as the candidate seemed to still be unwilling to provide much in the way of details. I suspect the media will press him even harder to explain his sudden move to the middle we witnessed tonight. Romney's claims on his tax plans, education and health care all seem to be changing before our eyes and will have to be defended.

What the night didn't produce was a very memorable response or smack-down. Some little digs here and there, but nothing major that I think will actually sway an undecided voter.

One thing of note was each man's faithfull-ness to their established narratives about the other. President Obama has been making the case that Mitt Romney is an out of touch, secretive elitist who will take this Country backwards. For whatever reason, Mr. Obama did not utilize these themes, whereas Mr. Romney who has maintained Barack Obama's policies have failed and he needs to be replaced, DID stay on those themes.

Mitt Romney earned the win this evening. He bloodied the President's nose. But make no mistake, he did not  knock the President out, nor did he even knock him down. There are two more rounds to go in this debate season. History tells us these debates rarely effect the outcome of the election. If Mitt Romney has two more nights like tonight, he will likely be rewarded in the polls. Donations, which had been reported to be declining for Mr. Romney, will probably reverse course and improve in the short run. Its too early to tell if this will effect the election. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. But make no mistake-tonight belongs to Mitt Romney.