Ron Paul for President, (can he win?)

"Ron Paul has support an inch wide and a mile deep"

Dennis Goldford, Drake University Politics Professor, May 14th, 2011


  Congressman Ron Paul of Texas's 14th Congressional District will be seventy-seven years old on Election Day 2012. If he wins the presidential election that day, he will be the oldest nominee for the highest office in the land, eclipsing the current record of Ronald Reagan, who was sixty nine when he entered office.

  As Conservative figures seem to be announcing daily whether they're in (Gingrich, Paul) or out (Huckabee, Christie) there's a lot to consider in the case of Mr. Paul. Never fully embraced by the Republican Party because of his strong Libertarian views, the Congressman may wind up the most appealing candidate to voters come November, 2012.

  On several policy issues, he's comfortably Republican. Smaller Government, strong belief in the Constitution,  free market advocate, pro-life positions all fit in nicely with the GOP checklist. On others however, he's not a good fit. He's been against us fighting in Afghanistan for quite a while now and thinks now that Bin Laden is out of the way, we should bring all the troops home. He wants to end all foreign aid to all Middle Eastern countries (including Israel), he thinks Guantanamo Bay should be closed and all the detainees tried in Civilian Courts. He is firmly against the use of torture. Thinks the Federal Reserve, the Internal Revenue Service, National Labor Relations Board and the Bureau for Homeland Security should all be done away with. He feels the Defense Of Marriage Act (DOMA) should be taken out of the Federal Governments hands and placed into the States purview. He thinks Churches should decide what marriage is, not the Federal Government. He advocates legalizing ALL drugs citing that the "war on drugs" has failed.

  He's stated publicly he feels Israel is too dependent on the United States in several ways including financial support. He was in favor of the building of the Mosque in New York City. He also believes prostitution should be legalized.

 Obviously, some of his positions won't play well in the Bible Belt. There are those who will say Ron Paul is no friend of Israel. That's not an easy position to take regarding cutting aid to Israel and I give him credit for that. I doubt we'll see any other GOP candidates saying the same thing.

 Nationally, GOP leaders are wary of the current field of likely candidates and are reportedly reaching out to both Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana and Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey. Daniels is undecided at this time and Christie has already said "no." Which suggests there's no particular Republican candidate strong enough to claim the mantle of "front-runner."

  With tonight's announcement by Mike Huckabee that he's not running in 2012, I see Mr. Paul in a cluster of four Conservatives who should be considered the A Group at this time:

  Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and Mr. Paul.

  In the B Group I see one man, Mr. Herman Cain as a bit of a wild card. Coming off a solid performance in the first GOP Debate in South Carolina, I know too much to under-estimate a thoughtful, articulate black man. He may be gone in a couple months, but then again....

  In the C Group, I see Rick Santorum, Michelle Bachmann and Sarah Palin. 

  The A Group are basically the candidates I could make a case for winning the GOP nomination. Each has obstacles to overcome. Mr. Cain is in a unique position right now, but he'll have a tough road to hoe once the A Group decides to target him in a future debate. The three in the C Group, I can't make a compelling case for their success. At least not yet. Mr. Santorum has some explaining to do about the John Ensign Affair scandal, although its not suggested he broke any laws. Mrs. Bachmann I see as the candidate Sarah Palin thought she was. Mrs. Palin is not a serious candidate and would be well advised to stay out of the deep end of the pool before she is made to look abjectly foolish in front of her Conservative peers.

  If Mr. Paul altered his stance on immigration reform from a hardline, zero amnesty approach to something more forgiving, its possible he could pull some independents and even, dare I say some dis-effected progressives from President Obama. Ending the wars, closing Gitmo, no torture, getting the Fed out of the marriage business, legalizing drugs, etc. are all positions that resonate with progressives. If President Obama has a rough go of it in the run up to 2012, and if his base is doubting his re-election, he may very well lose votes to the Congressman from Texas. I'd go as far as suggesting Mr. Paul is the name that concerns the Obama 2012 team the most.

  It will be quite the trick if he can present himself as the "something for everybody" candidate. Its unlikely to happen, even less likely to succeed. Ron Paul, I think, is the only candidate who hasn't stepped hard to the right in recent times. Not following the pack, may pay big dividends as we approach the GOP Convention in Tampa Bay, Florida. Working against the Paul campaign is his reported lack of a "ground game" in a national sense. Some experts say because he doesn't embrace fully traditional GOP policies, he may find less support than other more conventional candidate will. Countering that, is his ability to raise cash and a lot of it in a short time. Mr. Paul is quite experienced and may surprise a few folks before this is all over.

  And, a few Republicans, for that matter...



Sources:

http://www.indystar.com/article/D2/20110514/NEWS09/105140330/Ron-Paul-support-seen-inch-wide-mile-deep-?odyssey=mod_sectionstories&amp&amp

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Presidents_by_age

http://www.ronpaul.com/2010-08-20/ron-paul-sunshine-patriots-stop-your-demagogy-about-the-nyc-mosque/

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Ensign-sFriends/2011/05/13/id/396318

http://www.ronpaul.com/on-the-issues/border-security/