Republican Candidates Power Rankings (Debut Edition)

It's early. Really early...

The first primaries are still months away, the debates don't kick in with a vengeance until after Labor Day but already we see some reshuffling of the GOP deck. Upwards of ten Republicans are thought to be in the mix for the party nomination in 2012. If history teaches us anything about presidential politics, its that more often than not, pundits are wrong, polls are wrong and the candidate left standing after all others have been vanquished isn't a name we were told to watch out for 18 months earlier. 

Weekly, I'll try and make sense of what's happening in the GOP field. Who's up and who's down. There's no impressive mathematical formula being used here. I'm not Nate Silver. Rather, I'll look at the stories of the week, glance at the polls, and see what the candidates are focusing on to come up with a ranking I think makes sense for now. Over time, we should see a fairly solid order develop. 

The top dog each week isn't necessarily the person I predict will eventually win the nomination, but rather a snapshot of where the field stands right now. Over time, we'll see the field shrink and as fewer candidates are left standing, the more closely we'll follow the survivors and also keep an eye on who's endorsing whom. Its very fluid. I think we'll see at least one name drop out because of an alleged scandal. Who runs out of money? Who does the GOP "pack" turn on first? 

Here we go...

1) Mitt Romney-The widely acknowledged front-runner has more money, a larger organisation and strong name recognition scores. Romney does well in the recent Gallup Poll's overview of the GOP field, ranking 1st in ballot support (electability) and 3rd in name recognition behind Palin and Gingrich. He avoided any direct hits on the recent debate and seems to be running an organised, disciplined campaign thus far. He is, by any measure today, the man to beat. Won the Iowa straw poll by a single percent over our #2 ranked candidate...May be painted as a flip-flopper after changing stance on abortion, plus his greatest political achievement, universal healthcare coverage in Massachusetts, may hardly be seen as a blessing than a curse when its all said and done with. 

2) Michelle Bachmann-Came in a strong 2nd in the Iowa straw poll right behind the prohibitive favorite, Mitt Romney. Made a splash at the debate two weeks ago and seems to be riding a wave of popularity. Trouble is she was starting from so far behind the other names in the field that she's climbed to a middle of the pack status, no better. Yet. She has poor electability scores that should improve as/if people take her more seriously over time. Officially announcing her candidacy for POTUS on Monday in Iowa, she is a Tea Party favorite who projects to be an interesting figure to follow over the early stages of the '12 campaign. 

3) Tim Pawlenty-A surprisingly weak showing at the Iowa straw poll (sixth place with just 6% of the vote) follows a unsatisfying performance in the debate two weeks ago. Many in the party are concerned if he is a strong enough candidate after passing up an opportunity to engage Romney head on about his Romneycare comment. Pawlenty tried to polish that up by admitting it was an opportunity lost, but these two events combined are not the solid start his campaign wanted and probably needed. There's no particular area that he does better than anyone else running. 

4) Herman Cain-The only other candidate to get at least 10% of the Iowa Straw poll vote. Cain did well against a weak field in the first debate in SC, less so in the second with the heavy hitters on the same stage. His issue is name recognition. If he continues to hold his own in the debates, that should improve and he might benefit from the under dog label. Has strong favorables among those that know him, but I wonder if he has the organisation and financial support to be around, meaningfully in a year from now. 

 5) Sarah Palin- No one seems to really know is she will run or stay on the sidelines and play kingmaker. Through the roof name recognition but has dropping popularity numbers to deal with if she enters the race. There's no reports of a strong, nationwide organisation being constructed, (an office in Iowa doesn't count,) and rather than improve her policy chops the last few years, she's been more of a media darling than an Executive in training. Not viewed by many to be a serious politician. Leaving the Governorship in Alaska is also a huge obstacle to overcome. She's got lots of money and a role to play in who takes on Obama in 2012. I think she does not run.


 6) John Huntsman-Threw his hat in the race a few days ago and already being portrayed as the outcast by many on the far right of the Party. His association and complimentary letters towards President Obama hurt him as do his non traditional stances on gay marriage and a faster withdrawal of our troops. While his name recognition is improving over the last year, it seems the more Conservative voters learn about him, the less they like him. I think Huntsman is pursuing the Independent vote more than the traditional GOP vote. The thinking is that if the higher profile candidates destroy each other, Huntsman could emerge as a reasonable, electable Conservative. We'll see...

 7) Rick Perry-Another undeclared name who continues to be mentioned as a possible late entry to the field. The long time Governor of Texas is very well thought of by the more conservative elements of the party, but nationally, not well known. The latest odds I've seen seem to put him at 50/50 he enters the race. I can't see how he can make up lost ground on the other announced candidates or secure enough finances to cover the costs of a long campaign. If the former Gov. of Massachusetts wins the nomination, who better to join him on a powerful ticket than another successful Governor who could bring with him a lot of SW votes? Romney/Perry would'nt have much in the way of any Foreign Policy chops but did Senator Obama?

 8) Rick Santorum- Aligned strongly with the far right of the Conservative movement, Santorum did poorly in the Iowa straw poll, with just 4% of the vote. He's been around for awhile, does well with hard core Christians but not an "A group" candidate. Unless he catches fire early, I suspect his resources will dry up.Some say he's running more for Vice President than the top job, but I'm not sure what constituency he can provide. PA voters spanked him by 18% in his last State election. Its possible Romney, a Mormon, could see a benefit of having a devout Conservative Christian on his ticket, but I don't see it as a strong ticket. Also, still has that nasty Google issue...


 9) Ron Paul-Good name recognition but terrible negatives are associated with the most Libertarian of the Republicans. Earned 7% of the straw poll vote in Iowa, which says more about Santorum's chances than Paul's. Probably unelectable as he's viewed by many as more of a novelty candidate than a serious Conservative. His platform of smaller Gov't. resonates to a degree with the fashionable Tea Party anti-big Gov't. desires but leaves them cold with his stance on drugs, marraige, etc. The least cookie-cutter candidate to be sure, there are few signs visible that the Party is ready to embrace Mr. Paul as a national best hope to beat President Obama in '12.



 10) New Gingrich-Two more defections this week as the former Speaker's campaign continues to crumble. The good news is that in spite of all of the chaos surrounding his candidacy thus far he did grab 7% of the vote in Iowa, beating Pawlenty and Santorum and tying Ron Paul. Despite falling out of the starting gate, I think Gingrich will improve his standing once the debates kick in. If nothing else, its an opportunity to make up some ground. Then again, he might close up shop before we get to those debates...


Sources:

http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-debate-schedule/2011-2012-primary-debate-schedule/

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx