This evening, from the Reagan Library in SimiValley, California, the top eight ranked contenders for the Republican nomination for President in 2012 will face off in the 5th debate of this campaign season. It will be televised on MSNBC, beginning at 8:00pm.
You can stream it online here.
Here's my take on what each candidate's goals are (or should be) this evening:
Mitt Romney-His coasting days are over with the addition of Rick Perry into the race. Romney will have to engage more than has has so far in the previous debates and try to avoid absorbing any direct shots from Perry. Also targeting him will likely be Michelle Bachmann, who's support seems to be slipping in recent polls. I've had him as the front runner since this all began, but check back after the debate. If Perry pushes him around, then Romney will be looking up at a rival for the first time this campaign season.
Michelle Bachmann-Slipping in the most recent polls, major campaign staff changes, etc. do not add up to anything good. The debate continues on whether she's really a serious candidate and tonight will give her an opportunity to take some direct shots at the perceived big boys, Romney and Perry. She needs to do well tonight or risk slipping into the second tier of candidates.
Rick Perry-This will be the first debate for Gov. Perry and it will be interesting to see how the other deal with him. Mitt Romney almost has to confront him directly as Perry has sucked all the oxygen out of the room since joining the race. What I'm not sure of is how hard Romney will come after Perry. If its with kid gloves, then I think the Romney camp feels Perry is riding a wave that is unsustainable. If Romney really goes after him, to me, that says they're very worried about the Perry campaign.
Ron Paul-The highest ranking second tier candidate will likely do what he usually does, which will be continue beating the drum for smaller Government, an audit of the Federal Reserve and a overhaul of our fiscal policy. Whether or not he gains any traction tonight remains to be seen. As one campaign pundit said earlier this year, "Ron Paul's support is an inch wide but a mile deep." Paul needs to attract new voters to his side, rallying his base won't do anything. So far, he's not seemed able to do that.
Rick Santorum-Santorum performed well in the last debate, scoring points mostly at Ron Paul's expense. That won't help him tonight as he's polling near the bottom of the latest polls and doesn't have the resources to tread water for very much longer. I think, given his somewhat combative nature, he'll swing for the fences tonight and try and score some direct hits on one of the big names.
Herman Cain-He's popular among Conservatives but almost no one seems to feel he's got a serious chance to climb much higher in the GOP polls. He could go either way tonight. He could try and stay out of the line of fire and survive long enough to see a few other candidates leave the race. With a smaller field, he'd likely receive more face time and potentially make up some ground. Slightly less likely would be an aggressive performance tonight but do not rule it out.
John Huntsman-Huntsman has sort of become the anti-candidate leveling substantial criticism at the rest of the field in recent weeks. He's claimed he's going to win the New Hampshire primary, which is a rather bold prediction given his current positioning in the GOP polls. I think Huntsman's days are numbered, so who knows? He's already shown a willingness to separate himself from the pack, so why would he hold back tonight?
Newt Gingrich-I have no idea what the Gingrich plan is. The best I can come up with is stay the course and have a sort of campaign re-launch once the field shrinks. My issue with a plan like that is I see Gingrich as the most likely candidate to drop out.
Sources:
http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2011/09/reagan-library-republican-debate-tonight-on-msnbc/
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