Cain is Not Able...

Cain is Not Able...


Herman Cain has a problem.

So far, through all the various accusations brought forth by various women, he's denied, denied, denied any wrong-doing. Its a strategy that appears to have mostly worked. His campaign is still operational, but clearly viewed in a  worse light than six weeks ago. He's dipped in most of the national polls, but I think that's more attributable to his 9-9-9 economic policy, which independent evaluations have concluded would be quite tough on the poor. There's also concerns that Congress could too easily increase his 9% National Sales Tax and we'd wind up in a situation like Europe sees with theirs. (Started low, but grew over time...) His decline in the polls has also been exacerbated by his recent interview with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, where his responses to a fairly straightforward question on Libya were perplexing to say the least. He also canceled a scheduled sit-down with New Hampshire's largest newspaper, the New Hampshire Union Leader, earlier this month, after the Sentinel interview was released, which looked terrible. (Newt Gingrich has won the paper's much sought after endorsement.)

Now another woman, Ginger White of Atlanta, has come forward to an Atlanta television station with an allegation that she and Mr. Cain had a 14 year affair. Ms. White, according to WAGA, also provided telephone records that showed calls and texts from Cain's private cell phone number. Several of them. Actually, a lot of them over the last four months. 61 total calls or text messages over a roughly 120 day span, which is an average of 1 every other day. Mr. Cain admits to knowing Ginger White and claims he had been trying to help her with finding a job.

Is he telling the truth? I don't know, but the saying where's there's smoke, there's fire comes to mind. With as busy as you'd expect a guy who's running for President of the United States to be, I would think an issue like finding someone else a job would fall to the back burner.

Cain appeared yesterday afternoon on CNN and in an interview with Wolf Blitzer, claimed to know the accuser, describing her as a acquaintance and a friend. He denied any suggestion of an affair. "I did not have an affair" Cain said.

Cain's attorney, Lin Wood, released a statement from the campaign after the interview:

"This is not an accusation of harassment in the workplace -- this is not an accusation of an assault -- which are subject matters of legitimate inquiry to a political candidate," he said. "Rather, this appears to be an accusation of private, alleged consensual conduct between adults -- a subject matter which is not a proper subject of inquiry by the media or the public."

"No individual, whether a private citizen, a candidate for public office or a public official, should be questioned about his or her private sexual life," Wood said. "The public's right to know and the media's right to report has boundaries and most certainly those boundaries end outside of one's bedroom door."

The statement was confusing in that it basically suggests this isn't anyone's business, yet moments before its release, Mr. Cain appeared on national television and was quite willing to discuss it with Blitzer. Clearly they weren't on the same page so yet again the campaign looks disorganized, incompetent and amateurish. As news of the telephone records spreads, this makes things rough for the campaign to move on. He either has to find a way to discredit the telephone company's records quickly or convince us that, perhaps someone else was using his cell phone to communicate with Ms. White.

That will not be easy.

Is it time for Herman Cain to step away from the campaign? Probably. Even without this latest scandal, Cain was going to have an uphill fight. I think the cream is rising to the top of the GOP field and the notion that a lifelong businessman, who has never held office, could bring down both a former Governor of Massachusetts and long-time businessman in Mitt Romney and the current shooting star, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is highly unlikely to me. Romney and Gingrich have been through many, many political races and wars.

Another issue that may suggest Cain should quit is fundraising. In the 3rd quarter reports, Cain came in fifth with  a reported $2.8 Million dollars in contributions. Rick Perry reported a whopping 17 Million in fundraising,  Mitt Romney 14 Million, Ron Paul 3.8M and Michelle Bachmann 4.1M. Cain's figure also includes a personal loan to the campaign from the candidate himself for $175,000.

The Cain campaign reported an increase in campaign donations after the first wave of allegations of sexual misconduct/affairs/etc. How this latest accusation will effect fundraising remains to be seen. I think there's a limit to the generosity of supporters, especially when this latest matter matures in the media. It's less than 24 hours old, so the non-stop news cycles still have a way to go before they tire of it. If the phone records aren't proven wrong quickly, the media pressure will only build.

I wrote a column back in June about New York Congressman Anthony Weiner. The gist of which was that he should resign sooner rather than later to minimize the harm his personal scandal was causing the Democratic Party, especially in New York state. My reasoning was that Weiner was held in high regard by many in the upper circles of Democrat politics. There were suggestions that Weiner could win the mayoral contest in New York City if he so desired. If he played ball and left office. Go dark for a while. Let things settle down, work on his image and potentially return to open arms in a few years. Refuse and he did so at his own professional peril.

I think Herman Cain should seriously consider dropping out of the race for many of the same reasons.

He made a favorable impression in his first foray on the national political stage. There's plenty there to work with and if he's willing to do what former Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin wasn't, (educate one's self on the various weak links in their policy arsenals), Cain could emerge again in the future and be a  factor once again. One drawback is his age. Herman Cain will be five weeks short of sixty-six when the next Presidential election is held. Which means he would be 70 if he wanted to run for POTUS once more. That's unlikely, I admit. However, lessor positions, in a new Republican controlled Administration would be possible as soon as early 2013. (Secretary of Commerce, anyone?) His usefullness to his Party is on very shaky ground at this moment.

Its difficult to build a convincing argument where Cain runs the gauntlet and wins the Party nomination next summer. If you can't see a clear path to victory, then stepping away is a legitimate plan. The intensity of scrutiny factor diminishes rapidly should he leave the race. Not entirely, mind you, but if you're not in the race, the interest in you goes way down. Whatever shot he had at the beginning was probably sunk before he even declared his candidacy. Cain had to know there were these figures in his past that people would eventually dig up and report on. The Press is too expert at investigating public figures these days to not find out parts of a life Cain didn't want to deal with. If he thought they wouldn't find them, then he's fatally naive.

Profoundly naive.



Sources:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/15/us/politics/herman-cain-libya-comments-draw-criticism.html

http://www.newser.com/story/133589/herman-cain-bails-on-interview-with-biggest-newspaper-in-new-hampshire.html

http://www.unionleader.com/article/20111127/NEWS0605/711279999/0/opinion

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/69257.html

http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/28/politics/cain-accusation-affair/index.html?hpt=hp_c2

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/third-quarter-gop-fundraising-totals/2011/10/15/gIQA9gXemL_story.html.

http://reasonableconversation.blogspot.com/2011/06/resign-mr-weiner.html