Nate Silver, author of the widely respected "538 blog," is one of the premier mathematical minds looking at political polling data and telling us what it all means. He doesn't conduct actual polls, but rather forecasts, based on a collection of polls.
With nine days to go until election day, we're clearly in the final stages of this cycle. The contest between President Obama and Mitt Romney is almost certainly going to be a pretty close one, although it appears the odds favor a second term for Mr. Obama. While several national polls seem favorable to Romney, a look at the more important state polls, especially a state like Ohio, paint a different picture.
538 shows Obama with a 2.4% lead over Romney in Ohio as of Friday's polls. Given the large number (about 12) of polls in that state over the past ten days, its a quite significant development for the race.
Read Silver's latest column here:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/oct-26-state-poll-averages-usually-call-election-right/
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