With the acquittal of former President Donald Trump yesterday, there's a lot to chew on. Here's what I'm thinking about today.
In question and answer form, a few thoughts...
Q) DOES THE ACQUITTAL HELP TRUMP'S 2024 CHANCES TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT AGAIN?
A) Yes and no. Yes, because it's a long-acting injection straight into the vein of the Trump base. Trump's been playing the "victim" for a long, long time. He's good at it, too. If he decides to run himself in 2024, "THEY TRIED TO IMPEACH ME - AGAIN - AND LOST - AGAIN!!!" will be part of every campaign speech he makes. He'll paint a picture that the Democrats hate him And all of the good Americans who supported him in 2020, too. On the other hand, it won't help him because, by the largest margins in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, members of his own party have turned on him by the casting of votes, not to Trump's liking.
Q) WHY DID THE DEMS NOT CALL ON MORE WITNESSES TO TESTIFY?
A) From the reporting I've read, it comes to two main reasons. First, the witnesses from the Trump-world like Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and others from former Vice President Mike Pence's world showed no interest in cooperating with the House Managers. To compel them to testify would've meant subpoenas, which would've been challenged in Court. Then the appeals that were sure to come, etc, etc, etc. It could've dragged on months. Additionally, the GOP leaders in the Senate apparently made it clear that had witnesses been insisted upon, the Dems and President Joe Biden could kiss goodbye their desire to get the rest of Biden's Cabinet confirmed and any legislation passed. Realizing that no amount of testimony, regardless of how damning it was toward Trump, would change enough Republican votes to result in a guilty verdict the Democratic Managers decided a faster acquittal was preferable to a drawn-out acquittal.
Q) ARE THE REPUBLICANS AFRAID TRUMP - WOULDN'T THEY BE BETTER OFF WITHOUT HIM?
A) They're not afraid of Trump. The consensus seems to believe that had the vote to determine guilt on Saturday been a "secret ballot" instead of a public one, the former President may have lost handily. Did Minority Leader Mitch McConnell sound afraid to you when he said this after the vote was counted:
No, he's not afraid of Trump.
Everybody else with an (R) after their name is, however. Not exactly afraid of Trump, but his base. Trump's base is loyal, rapid and reflexively dismisses any negative news about their "Dear Leader."
Whichever conservative candidate winds up in favor with Trump's base, will have an advantage heading into the 2024 Republican primaries.
The GOP isn't a monolith in any sense of the word at all. The hardliners (Hawley, Johnson, MT Greene, Ernst, Blackburn, etc.) are one group. The old hands (Cruz, Rubio, Paul, Lee, Thune, Scott, etc) are another. Then, you have the Republicans who voted to find Trump guilty (Cheney, Romney, Toomey, Collins, Murkowski, Cassidy, Kinzinger, etc...)
How these three groups decide to work together or not over the next 18 months will be telling. Can they afford to be against the "hardliners?" Can they afford to be with the "hardliners?"
Again, should one hardliner be designated by the Kingmaker (Trump) in the run-up to the GOP primaries for 2024, they'll have a helluva base of support and donors to work with. All the other challengers may cancel each other out, leaving a relatively easy stroll to the nomination.
Q) IS TRUMP IN THE CLEAR?
A) No, he's not. Four, possibly five potentially significant legal landmines await Donald Trump.
1. The Attorney General of State of New York - Letitia James (Taxes)
2. Manhattan District Attorney - Cyrus Vance (Taxes)
3. US Attorney for the Southern District of New York - Audrey Strauss (Taxes)
4. Fulton County District Attorney, (Georgia ) - Fani Willis (Election interference)
5. Unites States Attorney General - Merrick Garland* (Tax Fraud)
*Garland still needs to be confirmed by the Senate.
Any one of these could pose big trouble for Trump, if a few of these jurisdictions take things all the way, there's no telling what punishment may await the former POTUS.
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*One guy who really, really impressed me during the impeachment process was Congressman Jaime Raskin (D) for Maryland's 8th Congressional District. His poise, his prose, and his professionalism were very appealing.
*One (well, three) people who didn't impress me at all during the impeachment process were Trump's three attorneys. Ill-prepared, unprofessional, I mean what lawyer, defending the former President of the United States brings up this guy?
