Easy, says Ezra Klein. First, the Congressional Budget Office's new and improved deficit projections will help to the tune of $800 billion, as will the fiscal cliff tax increases (which Ryan voted for). Abandon sequestration, and - voila! - your old budget balances in 10 years.
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Showing posts with label Paul Ryan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Paul Ryan. Show all posts
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Rep. Ryan's Magical Balancing Act
Rep. Paul Ryan's previous budget was forecast to balance by 2038. Next week, he will unveil a "no surprises" budget that balances in 10 years. How can he do this without major changes, which would presumably surprise some people?
Easy, says Ezra Klein. First, the Congressional Budget Office's new and improved deficit projections will help to the tune of $800 billion, as will the fiscal cliff tax increases (which Ryan voted for). Abandon sequestration, and - voila! - your old budget balances in 10 years.
Easy, says Ezra Klein. First, the Congressional Budget Office's new and improved deficit projections will help to the tune of $800 billion, as will the fiscal cliff tax increases (which Ryan voted for). Abandon sequestration, and - voila! - your old budget balances in 10 years.
Friday, October 12, 2012
Vice Presidential Debate Recap...
Tonight's debate between Vice President Joe Biden and Republican nominee Paul Ryan was clearly superior to last week's round one match-up between Messrs. Obama and Romney. The ninety minute seated discussion ranged across a variety of issues including Libya, Iran the economy, taxes, and foreign policy. The event was moderated by veteran reporter, Martha Raddatz, who I thought was very good.
First of all, I should announce that we actually had two people on stage that seemed interested in making their cases to the American people. Joe Biden was clearly locked and loaded and came out of the gate hard, as expected. Paul Ryan was composed, focused and similarly had a lot to say. From an optics perspective, however, Mr. Biden dominated the debate. That's not to say he won the debate, though I do think it was a slight but clear win for the VP.
I felt Biden was more direct with his answers than Ryan was through most of the evening. That said the VP dodged the opening question of the evening about the security issues in Banghazi two weeks ago, opting instead to detail a broader/safer themed response about this Administration pledging to hold those responsible for these attacks and that via an in-house review, whatever mistakes were made, will not be repeated. Ryan also chose not to answer direct questions about the Romney tax plan by (still) not providing any details about what loopholes would be cut, instead preferring to comment on the value of "bi-partisanship," which I thought was pretty brassy.
Demeanor wise, Mr. Ryan was very appropriate, professional and reasonable with his physical self. Mr. Biden was, at times, too animated. The VP laughed and chuckled a lot during the Ryan responses and after a few moments it became uncomfortable and a bit distracting. Was Biden laughing at the younger man? Trying to portray some opinion of his opponents comments? Something else? Whatever the case, he took it too far and will receive some heat for his conduct. Which on one hand I understand, yet for the Republican party, which hasn't exactly behaved like choir boys during President Obama's first term, to cry foul, is pathetic.
Stylistically, to my eyes, Mr. Biden seemed more confident, quick and Presidential. Mr. Ryan certainly didn't embarrass himself and this experience will likely serve as a warm-up act for 2016. I think both men are nice guys, both perhaps warmer and more genuine than the upper halves of their respective tickets. I would've like to seen less chortling from Biden and more details from Ryan.
Biden's job tonight was to steady the ship for his boss, which I'd say he clearly did. Ryan's job was to not say anything severely stupid, which I'd say he also did. Debates between Vice Presidential candidates don't usually make that much of an impact on the election. Remember when Democratic VP nominee Lloyd Bentsen bitch-slapped Dan Quayle with the "you're no Jack Kennedy" line? Bentsen's boss, Mike Dukakis got crushed by George Bush, Sr.
Twitter reported far fewer tweets during this debate than in the presidential debate from last week. Last week, twitter says that 10.3 Million tweets went out during the Obama/Romney debate, versus just 3.5 million for tonight's debate.
Bottom line, Biden comes out ahead because of a high quality set of answers. Ryan didn't really hurt himself or his ticket-mate. I think the polls will begin to reverse back in Mister Obama's direction by the time of the next presidential debate, next Tuesday.
First of all, I should announce that we actually had two people on stage that seemed interested in making their cases to the American people. Joe Biden was clearly locked and loaded and came out of the gate hard, as expected. Paul Ryan was composed, focused and similarly had a lot to say. From an optics perspective, however, Mr. Biden dominated the debate. That's not to say he won the debate, though I do think it was a slight but clear win for the VP.
I felt Biden was more direct with his answers than Ryan was through most of the evening. That said the VP dodged the opening question of the evening about the security issues in Banghazi two weeks ago, opting instead to detail a broader/safer themed response about this Administration pledging to hold those responsible for these attacks and that via an in-house review, whatever mistakes were made, will not be repeated. Ryan also chose not to answer direct questions about the Romney tax plan by (still) not providing any details about what loopholes would be cut, instead preferring to comment on the value of "bi-partisanship," which I thought was pretty brassy.
Demeanor wise, Mr. Ryan was very appropriate, professional and reasonable with his physical self. Mr. Biden was, at times, too animated. The VP laughed and chuckled a lot during the Ryan responses and after a few moments it became uncomfortable and a bit distracting. Was Biden laughing at the younger man? Trying to portray some opinion of his opponents comments? Something else? Whatever the case, he took it too far and will receive some heat for his conduct. Which on one hand I understand, yet for the Republican party, which hasn't exactly behaved like choir boys during President Obama's first term, to cry foul, is pathetic.
Stylistically, to my eyes, Mr. Biden seemed more confident, quick and Presidential. Mr. Ryan certainly didn't embarrass himself and this experience will likely serve as a warm-up act for 2016. I think both men are nice guys, both perhaps warmer and more genuine than the upper halves of their respective tickets. I would've like to seen less chortling from Biden and more details from Ryan.
Biden's job tonight was to steady the ship for his boss, which I'd say he clearly did. Ryan's job was to not say anything severely stupid, which I'd say he also did. Debates between Vice Presidential candidates don't usually make that much of an impact on the election. Remember when Democratic VP nominee Lloyd Bentsen bitch-slapped Dan Quayle with the "you're no Jack Kennedy" line? Bentsen's boss, Mike Dukakis got crushed by George Bush, Sr.
Twitter reported far fewer tweets during this debate than in the presidential debate from last week. Last week, twitter says that 10.3 Million tweets went out during the Obama/Romney debate, versus just 3.5 million for tonight's debate.
Bottom line, Biden comes out ahead because of a high quality set of answers. Ryan didn't really hurt himself or his ticket-mate. I think the polls will begin to reverse back in Mister Obama's direction by the time of the next presidential debate, next Tuesday.
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Best Tweets from First Night of GOP Convention...
Some of the more entertaining tweets I've seen after tonight's speeches at the GOP Convention in Tampa...
Comments on Gov. Christie's speech:
Comments on Mrs. Romney's speech:
Comments on Gov. Christie's speech:
From @BorowitzReport: ROMNEY HAILED AS REGULAR GUY BY WOMAN WITH HORSE IN OLYMPICS: http://nyr.kr/NBtf3u
Christie used "I" 35+ times; MT @peterbakernyt: Since it's been asked, Christie used Romney's name 7 times;
.@Maddow: "This was Chris Christie accepting the Republican nomination for 2016."
Christie: Romney "will tell us the hard truths."//Ridiculous. He won't even explain his tax plan. #rnc2012
Retweeted by Austan Goolsbee
This is a great speech. But it's a great speech for Chris Christie, not for Mitt Romney.
Health-care reform was pretty much the definition of not following polls.
There it is! 17 minutes in and Christie drops a "Mitt Romney" reference! #gop2012
+1 RT @ErikWemple: If Christie wants to save this speech, he should just start taking questions. #whathedoesbest #GOP2012
If Christie wants to be respected but not loved, he should tell the GOP convention that fiscal responsibility will require tax increases
DSCC exec dir RT @guycecil: The wrong Romney is running...
Well. @AnnDRomney can sure give a speech.
Ann Romney is doing what she needed to do here: Humanizing Mitt.
RT @JessicaTaylor: "Mitt sees helping others as a privilege not a political talking point" -- delivered pretty masterfully from Ann Romney
We're done debating who was the most effective/best speaker at#GOP2012 today, right? #hintitisAnnRomney
A few words on the Republican / Democratic Conventions...
I have no essay prepared for either political convention. I have no long-winded thoughts to share on either Party's group hugfest. These are nothing more than political pep rallies where each Party will demonize the other Party's nominee's to no end, describe the fall of a nation that will surely transpire if "fill in the blank" is or isn't elected. This election will be described as the most important election in our lifetimes. There will be praise aimed at the nominees from each of their Party's-much of which is undeserved.
This week, if you're a Republican or to a lessor degree a Conservative, you'll probably enjoy the speeches, the feigned drama, etc. unfolding in Tampa. You'll hear all the great things about Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan and all the terrible things about Barack Obama and Joe Biden. You'll hear countless speeches from fellow Party members all basically saying the same things. There is a Party line that needs to be adhered to, and woe to anyone (Todd Akin?) who wanders too far off the reservation.
Next week, if you're a Democrat or to a lessor degree a Progressive, you'll probably enjoy the speeches, the feigned drama, etc. unfolding in Charlotte. You'll hear all the great things about Barack Obama and Joe Biden and all the terrible things about Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. You'll hear countless speeches from fellow Party members all basically saying the same things. There is a Party line that needs to be adhered to, and woe to anyone (Joe Biden?) who wanders too far off the reservation.
We'll meet Mrs. Romney and Mrs. Obama. Both will take time to paint their husbands as the consummate husband, father, partner. They will share stories they reflect sides of their personalities that we don't often get to see. Mrs. Romney especially will drive home the warmth and character of her husband, who has been portrayed as a cold, money-grabbing sort. The real Mr. Romney lies somewhere in between the two representations of him.
This week, various attack dogs will be unleashed upon Barack Obama's record. Tonight Rick Santorum and then in the headliner speech of the evening, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will pull no punches. I suspect Mr. Santorum will address Obama's alleged "war on religion", while Christie hammers him on everything else. (This is batting practice for Christie...I suspect it to be quite rough and the crowd to be in an absolute frenzy by the time he's done.)
Next week, various attack dogs from the Left will attack the Romney/Ryan ticket with equal fervor. I'm not sure of the order, but we'll be hearing from former President Bill Clinton, former Chief of Staff and current Mayor of Chicago Rahm Emanuel, plus Elizabeth Warren, Caroline Kennedy and Sandra Fluke. (I suspect Emanuel will be the Democratic attack dog...)
There is no question as to whom each Party will officially nominate as its candidate. None. There will be a slight bump in the polls, a temporary one, for each candidate after the conventions are over. I'm aware of no political scientist or pundit who feels the election will be won or lost over the next two weeks. Yes, if Romney can re-introduce himself as a caring, compassionate, warm, capable executive it'll help his cause. If he can't, it won't help his cause. Barack Obama is mostly well-known to his supporters and has no such challenge before him. I suppose in that vein, the Convention is more important to Mr. Romney than it is to Mr. Obama.
After the Conventions, we'll spend a month of more stump speeches and a few interviews, which bring us to the debates, the first of which is scheduled for Wednesday, October 3rd, 2012. There will be two additional Presidential Debates and one Vice Presidential Debate by October 22, 2012.
The debates will be far more important to determining the outcome on Election Day than either of the Conventions. I caution supporters on both sides of the debate to take the next two weeks with a grain of salt. They are pep rallies and you're supposed to walk away from those feeling like there's no way in the world your team candidate can lose. Republican's will be on cloud nine by late Thursday evening, as Democrats will be by late next week. Look for a heightened level of rhetoric on facebook and your favorite message boards. Take that too with a grain of salt. Or put another way, I'll share a favorite quote from Mr. Shakespeare:
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury
Signifying nothing. — Macbeth (Act 5, Scene 5, lines 17-28)
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury
Signifying nothing. — Macbeth (Act 5, Scene 5, lines 17-28)
Sunday, August 19, 2012
Paul Krugman: Paul Ryan Not A Serious Man...
It's not surprising that economist Paul Krugman finds little to like about Republican Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan's tax ideas. Its not really surprising how Krugman dissects the "Ryan" plan and the "seriousness" that is supposed to come with it.
A preview of today's column from the New York Times:
"The answer, basically, is a triumph of style over substance. Over the longer term, the Ryan plan would end Medicare as we know it — and in Washington, “fiscal responsibility” is often equated with willingness to slash Medicare and Social Security, even if the purported savings would be used to cut taxes on the rich rather than to reduce deficits. Also, self-proclaimed centrists are always looking for conservatives they can praise to showcase their centrism, and Mr. Ryan has skillfully played into that weakness, talking a good game even if his numbers don’t add up."
Find and read the entire column here...
Source:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/20/opinion/krugman-an-unserious-man.html?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto
Saturday, August 18, 2012
Does Paul Ryan Increase Mitt Romney's Chance At Winning?
In a word, yes.
Since being selected by Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan has elevated the general tone and focus of the campaign. We now hear daily sound bites on Medicare, which has not been traditional GOP fare during campaigns for the highest office in the land. That would've been hard to imagine a few months ago.
I have watched and listened to Ryan's performance on the stump over the last few days and I must admit, I'm pretty impressed. I've known for a few years he's a smart man, well versed in the wonky world of congressional budgets and financial forecasts. I've known for a few years he's well regarded as a "serious guy" in Washington D.C. and has a reputation for doing the hard fiscal foundational work that leaves so many politicians running the other way. He has a reputation of not only being good at the numbers, but enjoying that type work. In addition to brains, he possesses a certain charm and likability that will serve both he and Mr. Romney very well over the next few months in the run-up to Election day.
This is the second Republican ticket in a row where the light and energy seems to be coming from the bottom half of the ticket versus the upper half. In 2008 we saw a relative unknown politician from Alaska named Sarah Palin explode onto the scene and create such an excitement that neither the media, or Mrs. Palin could barely contain themselves. The situation this year isn't quite so flashy or sparkly, but Mr. Romney isn't complaining. The biggest difference between Sarah Palin and Paul Ryan is that Palin wound up needing to be "brought up to speed" on a plethora of basic issues ranging from economics, foreign policy and so on. Simple questions so baffled her that she looked foolish. The campaign wasn't blameless. First off, they picked her with more concern about the splash she might make to help a struggling John McCain than her experience or knowledge. It was a train wreck with both sides pointing fingers at the other one before it was all said and done.
Mr. Ryan hasn't been hiding out in Alaska these last thirteen years. He's been an up and coming legislator representing Wisconsin's 1st District and ascending the ladder in terms of position and power in the House. Now Chairman of the House Budget Committee, Ryan takes a back seat to no one in terms of a high level of understanding on national fiscal matters. Safe to say, comparing Ryan to Palin, Ryan is the hands down stronger more competent addition to the ticket.
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Usually a VP candidate will add some constituency to the top half of the ticket's support. Sarah Palin brought along the far right conservatives who weren't enamored with John McCain and the same argument could be (easily) made this time. Romney seems to be in the active process of "converting" to a more conservative stance on many issues, whereas Ryan has already planted his flag well right of the former Governor. At first glance, the far right, conventional wisdom tells us, will flock to Romney because of his more conservative partner. The problem with that line of reasoning is that the far right is already so determined, so energized to replace Barack Obama that I say their votes are mostly unaffected by Ryan joining the ticket. This is not a voting block that was ever up for grabs. Romney already has these votes in his pocket. Ryan doesn't help with this group.
Its not a lock that Ryan will be able to bring the Badger's State ten electoral votes with him in November. Wisconsin swung hard right in the 2010 mid terms, but keep in mind Barack Obama won Wisconsin in '08. Currently, the State is considered a toss-up for November.
Ryan has very little meaningful work or business experience other than his career in D.C. So, there's no big labor block that will follow him to Romney's benefit. He never served in the military, so beyond voting consistently to grow the size of the armed forces, there's no strong connection there to gain from.
There's plenty of reasons why Ryan may have been a risky pick. He's too wonky, his controversial stances on privatizing Social Security. His Medicare/Medicaid plans contained within his budget proposal are viewed as too severe by many. His votes of support for the Medicare Advantage fiasco, which added to the deficit and his votes in support of President Obama's stimulus package turn a lot of conservatives off. His public admiration for Ayn Rand may be offensive to many on the religious right. Ryan is a practicing Catholic and with Romney being a Morman, its been postulated that not having a traditional Protestant Christian on the ticket might hurt them in the General. Neither man has any military experience, which is rare and hasn't happened in 80 years for a national level presidential ticket for either party.
I wouldn't worry however if you're a Romney/Ryan fan. Once again, those constituencies of conservatives
won't let a few small issues like those get in the way of them voting against Obama. They folks aren't staying home in November and there's not a chance in hell they'll cross over and vote Democrat. Again, in spite of any of these shortcomings, they're not big enough to work against the Romney campaign. Remember a vote for Romney is no bigger than a vote against Obama.
Even those who point out some of Romney/Ryan's mis-representations about what President Obama's health care program, the Affordable Care Act, does or doesn't do, especially with regard to Medicare, in the end, I don't think will be a problem. The ACA when broken down into its various components polls well, but when bundled under the "Obamacare" label, support falls. Its not rational, but its a reality. Romney and Ryan both know this and will continue to beat the drum of vagueness for as long as they possibly can. Let Obama try to explain why or how we're misrepresenting his Socialist healthcare program. The ACA is wonky, dense stuff that bores people to tears. Its like cake. The good for you, healthy tastes like crap cake doesn't usually fare well against the cake loaded with fat grams, sugar and binding agents (that may cause anal leakage) but tastes great, does it?
With the national polls too close to call, it won't take much of a swing for one candidate to move ahead of the other. If the undecided independent voters, I say, vote with their hearts and feelings- I think that bodes very, very well for Romney/Ryan. If they are somehow turned off by the R&R campaign, and are willing to seriously dig below the surface and fact check the campaign ads and rhetoric, then I think it bodes well for the incumbent. My faith that the undecideds are likely to do the heavy lifting isn't very high. Other factors like the unemployment rate, pocketbook issues, something terrorist related occurs, then all bets are off.
Bottom line, while Paul Ryan is far more knowledgeable and serious than Palin ever was, he will pick his spots carefully on providing details. The less details he or Romney release, the harder it is for President to attack them. The convention will provide an emotional lift for the ticket and the debates will also be important in how the two sides find themselves heading into November. I suspect Obama will do well against Mr. Romney, but I tend to think Joe Biden will have his hands full with Ryan. Biden knows his way around a debate but he better plan on a more worthy opponent than he faced the last time. Ryan is a gifted public speaker, perhaps even more skilled than his new boss is.
In summary, two weeks ago the Romney campaign was slowly but surely losing ground to Obama. Now, with the addition of Paul Ryan, Romney seems stronger, more confident, more...Presidential perhaps. If he had chosen almost any of the fellow GOP-ers he defeated during the primary season, I would put him at a huge disadvantage heading into the conventions. Can you imagine Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum or Michelle Bachmann as his running mate? They would've been laughed at. It was reported shortly after the Ryan selection became official that the Democrats were delighted that Paul Ryan was chosen. Most likely that was posturing, predictable posturing at that.
The President has his hands full, and Mitt Romney's chances of sending Mr. Obama back to Chicago have improved greatly with the addition of Paul Ryan to the ticket.
Sources:
http://thinkprogress.org/health/2012/06/25/505526/poll-most-americans-support-obamacare-provisions/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)
http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=277385
http://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/some-campaign-clarifications-on-medicare/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Saturday, August 11, 2012
BREAKING: VARIOUS MEDIA OUTLETS REPORT PAUL RYAN TO BE NAMED MITT ROMNEY'S VP...
BREAKING: VARIOUS MEDIA OUTLETS REPORT PAUL RYAN TO BE NAMED MITT ROMNEY'S VP...
It is expected that Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney will announce his selection for Vice President tomorrow morning at a campaign stop in Norfolk, Virginia tomorrow (Saturday) morning. The Romney campaign isn't confirming or denying reports from the Huffington Post and the Weekly Standard released Friday that indicate Paul Ryan is the choice for the lower half of the GOP ticket.
The announcement is expected around 9:00am eastern time...
UPDATE: AP News is now also reporting this story...
More coverage from:
the Huffington Post here...
the Weekly Standard here...
the Hill here...
Newsmax here...
It is expected that Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney will announce his selection for Vice President tomorrow morning at a campaign stop in Norfolk, Virginia tomorrow (Saturday) morning. The Romney campaign isn't confirming or denying reports from the Huffington Post and the Weekly Standard released Friday that indicate Paul Ryan is the choice for the lower half of the GOP ticket.
The announcement is expected around 9:00am eastern time...
UPDATE: AP News is now also reporting this story...
More coverage from:
the Huffington Post here...
the Weekly Standard here...
the Hill here...
Newsmax here...
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Mass Exodus Hits Gingrich Campaign...
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Mass defections hit Gingrich campaign |
Word came down late afternoon today that mass defections have hit the campaign of Newt Gingrich. The former Speaker of the House, who is returning from a vacation in the Mediterranean, released a statement via Facebook saying, “I am committed to running the substantive, solutions-oriented campaign I set out to run earlier this spring. The campaign begins anew Sunday in Los Angeles.”
Gone from the Gingrich team are Campaign Manager Rob Johnson, long time spokesman Rick Tyler, several of his top field operatives in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, as well as other paid staff members.
While "a different vision for victory" was cited as the main reason for the exodus, there are several factors that probably played a part in the events of today.
1) Fundraising: Campaigns are expensive things and whatever streams of donations Gingrich enjoyed early on dried up after he called Paul Ryan's Medicare Plan "Right Wing Social Engineering" and "radical." Even though he called Ryan and apologized, donations had slowed to a trickle. The veteran campaigners who bailed today know there just isn't a comfortable amount of cash coming in to bankroll a 16 month campaign.
2) Lack of discipline: As cable pundits weighed in when Gingrich "finally" officially made his campaign announcement for the 2012 GOP nomination, the one thing they all seemed to agree on was could Newt Gingrich campaign in a disciplined way and not shoot his candidacy in the foot by saying something toxic. It didn't take long. When Gingrich appeared (for the 35th time) he made the startling remarks about the GOP Plan for Medicare. Damage control was initiated quickly, but the toothpaste was out of the tube. Conservatives united in their rejection of Gingrich's statement.
3) Bad time for a vacation: Gingrich's staff felt frustrated that he went overseas for vacation just when he needed to buckle down Stateside and start repairing the damage from the early days of the campaign. The Ryan comment, the matter of an unpaid bill at Tiffany's, dropping poll results, etc. all contributed to the staff deciding to leave. The trip to Greece cinched it.
Conservative media sources including Red State took little steps to paint a sympathetic picture of the Gingrich campaign today. Fox News called his campaign "imperiled." The Hill described his campaign style as "erratic." Red State.com's Erik Erickson said, "I think the odds of Newt being able to conduct a viable, sustained campaign are rapidly diminishing unless he does something bold quickly or has a knock out performance in the New Hampshire debate on Monday."
Its hard to explain why a candidate, universally hailed as one of the sharpest political minds of this generation could stumble so badly out of the blocks. I see three different paths forward for Mr. Gingrich. Its so bad for him right now that his national campaign co-chair, Former Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue, also announced today that would no longer support a Gingrich run for nomination. Perdue quickly threw his support to Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.
*Resume a low key campaign and hope that a few of the other GOP candidates slip as he has and then capitalize.
*Go for the five run home run or some shocking claim or policy that could overshadow the mistakes of the last few weeks.
*Quit and market his support to the highest bidder in the new GOP Administration.
We'll know more after his speech in Los Angeles on Sunday and then the debate on Monday evening in New Hampshire.
Sources:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/06/09/sources-gingrich-aides-resign-en-masse-from-campaign/?test=latestnews
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/165655-gingrich-campaign-suffers-mass-resignations
http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/06/09/the-horserace-for-thursday-june-9-2011/
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/165685-pawlenty-picks-up-endorsement-of-top-gingrich-supporter
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
What's the difference between Vouchers and Premium Support?
If you've been following the Ryan Plan to change Medicare the last several weeks, you've probably come across this term, "premium support." It was new to me, and I'm guessing its new to most of my readers. While the Ryan plan has little to no chance of ever becoming law, it will likely remain in the discussion for quite a while.
Voted down 57-40 in the Senate today, largely due to the perception the GOP/Ryan plan for Medicare is bad for Seniors, it also played a part in the NY 26th Congressional election yesterday, where a Democrat upset the Republican candidate, for the long time GOP held seat. It will remain as a place holder or an alternative so that the GOP can say, "...look, we've provided a better idea, a better plan. We just need to sell it to the American people and they'll join us in repealing Obamacare."
Even if somehow the Senate approved it down the road, President Obama would not be inclined to just roll back his single biggest policy achievement. Not gonna happen.
Anyway, here's the difference between vouchers and premium support...
Vouchers are a flat payment to seniors with an amount that's adjusted by the consumer price index. If the index goes up, the payout goes up. If it drops, so does the payout. Seniors would be expected to use this money, sent to them from the Federal Government to buy private health insurance.
Premium Support are payments made directly to the insurance companies on the senior citizen's behalf. These amounts are indexed to average health care costs.
Its important to note that the Ryan Plan would replace Medicare with a voucher indexed to the consumer price index. For the last 30 + years, health care costs have risen higher and faster than the CPI has risen, by about 4% annually.
To add to the confusion, what Congressman Ryan calls Premium Support is really closer to the definition of a voucher system.
Over time, if Seniors have to pick up the additional 4% in health care costs, it will be a hardship for that population that have the smallest means to afford the extra expense. For example, the Ryan Plan would give seniors $8,000 in 2022 to pay for their insurance. If for some reasons health premiums rise dramatically, seniors would be stuck paying the difference between the $8,000 and whatever the premiums wound up costing. As the Congressional Budget Office commented, "the share of health care expenses that a typical elderly beneficiary would have to pay out of pocket would go up in 2030—from 25-30 percent under current law, to 68 percent under the Ryan plan.”
Further, the health care economist who originally designed premium support, Henry Aaron, points to the fact that the Ryan Plan calls for insurance exchanges for seniors and the disabled, while in his and his party's call to repeal the Affordable Care Act (i.e. "Obamacare") which offers insurance exchanges for the younger, healthier and non disabled population. It is much riskier to form an exchange for the worst risk/highest cost pool imaginable.
"Vigorous supporters of market-based controls on health spending should start where chances for success are greatest. That means proceeding resolutely to implement the Affordable Care Act, not repeal it, and to wait for radical change in Medicare until we see how the new system works."
Sources:
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Ryan plan on life support?
As Ezra Klein says in this morning's Wonkbook...
"It seems increasingly clear that though Medicare is on the table -- Nancy Pelosi said as much yesterday -- the privatization and voucherization plan that passed through the House is not. No major Republican presidential candidates have endorsed it -- and Newt Gingrich actually came out against it -- the Senate GOP left it out of their budget, Boehner said he's "not wedded" to it, and when Paul Ryan, the plan's creator, delivered a defense of his budget in Chicago yesterday, he spent almost no time at all explaining or defending the Medicare portion. To say he glossed over it would be an understatement. He rushed past it, like a man hastily greeting his ex on his way out of a party.
"It seems increasingly clear that though Medicare is on the table -- Nancy Pelosi said as much yesterday -- the privatization and voucherization plan that passed through the House is not. No major Republican presidential candidates have endorsed it -- and Newt Gingrich actually came out against it -- the Senate GOP left it out of their budget, Boehner said he's "not wedded" to it, and when Paul Ryan, the plan's creator, delivered a defense of his budget in Chicago yesterday, he spent almost no time at all explaining or defending the Medicare portion. To say he glossed over it would be an understatement. He rushed past it, like a man hastily greeting his ex on his way out of a party.
That's good news for those who dislike Ryan's plan. But it means we've wasted the last few months arguing over a plan that isn't going to happen. Worse, as of yesterday, we've actually hit the debt ceiling, meaning that we can't dither on a deal for much longer, as the countdown to an actual financial disaster has begun. So we need some sort of agreement between the two parties, and soon. But the two parties don't even seem close to that. And much more time has been spent talking about policies that everyone knows -- and knew -- won't be part of a deal than policies that will."
This reminds me of the endless running in place that occurred during all of the Committee work during heath care reform. Time, money, public interest are all wasted to some degree as policies with little chance of success are whittled into shape.
After a point, most normal people just shrug and say, "who cares?"
Can you blame them?
Monday, May 16, 2011
Gingrich infuriates GOP, calls Ryan Plan "Social Engineering"
I can't know for sure, but I'm guessing Newt Gingrich ruined a lot of GOP-ers Sunday morning. Gingrich knows his way around an interview and make no mistake, he did not mis speak.
Gingrich, on NBC's Meet The Press show, called the House Republican plan for Medicare, penned by Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, "right wing social engineering." This comment, unexpected by most, caused Ryan to comment today on a talk radio interview, "...with allies like that, who needs liberals?"
The former Speaker of the House wasn't done. Gingrich also said he felt the individual mandate is necessary in any health care reform plan. While he did walk that back a bit today by calling it "unconstitutional," the damage has been done. Which was his intent all along.
With a relatively weak field, Gingrich seems to have thumbed his nose at the entire Republican Party. It forced Ryan and several other GOP leaders to deal with questions about his comments, when they would've rather been focusing on leaning on the White House regarding raising the debt ceiling issue.
Why did he do what he did?
I think Newt senses that most of the independent voters aren't Tea Party types. They're fairly mainstream folks who dislike extreme partisanship, of any color. By claiming the middle on the Medicare debate, real or imagined, he now seems like the adult in the room. I'm sure there will be a poll out by the end of the week showing a slight bump in his approval rating. If there is a bump, look for Gingrich to throw unexpected bombs every few weeks to keep the other GOP candidates and the party in general off its game.
Gingrich has several issues to overcome to obtain the Republican nomination in 2012. His marital issues, his extreme partisanship in the 80's, his extreme partisanship recently where he spoke of Obama being from Kenya, and his lack of discipline overall. He's often thought of as the smartest guy in the room. He's currently thought of as a giant pain in the ass by many fellow Conservatives.
While Conservatives can't be happy with his comments, Democrats and even President Obama should be thankful. Who would've thought Mr. Gingrich would have sent out Christmas presents early to them? Trust me, his comments from Sunday morning are already in a production studio somewhere being turned into a commercial. Probably several commercials, which we'll see released over the next few weeks/months.
Game on, guys...
Sources:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703509104576325350084379360.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/05/16/rep-ryan-fires-gingrich-medicare-plan-criticism/
Gingrich, on NBC's Meet The Press show, called the House Republican plan for Medicare, penned by Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, "right wing social engineering." This comment, unexpected by most, caused Ryan to comment today on a talk radio interview, "...with allies like that, who needs liberals?"
The former Speaker of the House wasn't done. Gingrich also said he felt the individual mandate is necessary in any health care reform plan. While he did walk that back a bit today by calling it "unconstitutional," the damage has been done. Which was his intent all along.
With a relatively weak field, Gingrich seems to have thumbed his nose at the entire Republican Party. It forced Ryan and several other GOP leaders to deal with questions about his comments, when they would've rather been focusing on leaning on the White House regarding raising the debt ceiling issue.
Why did he do what he did?
I think Newt senses that most of the independent voters aren't Tea Party types. They're fairly mainstream folks who dislike extreme partisanship, of any color. By claiming the middle on the Medicare debate, real or imagined, he now seems like the adult in the room. I'm sure there will be a poll out by the end of the week showing a slight bump in his approval rating. If there is a bump, look for Gingrich to throw unexpected bombs every few weeks to keep the other GOP candidates and the party in general off its game.
Gingrich has several issues to overcome to obtain the Republican nomination in 2012. His marital issues, his extreme partisanship in the 80's, his extreme partisanship recently where he spoke of Obama being from Kenya, and his lack of discipline overall. He's often thought of as the smartest guy in the room. He's currently thought of as a giant pain in the ass by many fellow Conservatives.
While Conservatives can't be happy with his comments, Democrats and even President Obama should be thankful. Who would've thought Mr. Gingrich would have sent out Christmas presents early to them? Trust me, his comments from Sunday morning are already in a production studio somewhere being turned into a commercial. Probably several commercials, which we'll see released over the next few weeks/months.
Game on, guys...
Sources:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703509104576325350084379360.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/05/16/rep-ryan-fires-gingrich-medicare-plan-criticism/
Gingrich Knocks GOP Proposal for Medicare - WSJ.com
Gingrich Knocks GOP Proposal for Medicare - WSJ.com
Criticizes Ryan's plan, supports need for individuals to be required to buy health insurance...
Sunday, May 8, 2011
What is "Premium Support" for Medicare? | XChange - The NBR Blog | Nightly Business Report | PBS
What is this "Premium Support" we hear Paul Ryan use in his alternate health care plan?
Friday, May 6, 2011
Hit list...
Looking for a few good articles to read? Try these...
*Lanny Davis of Purple Nation asks can't we drop the extremist political harping and have a feel good moment?
*Igor Volsky writes about Paul Ryan admitting at a town hall that his plan contains an individual mandate, too...
*Washington Post poll shows the number of people who believe President Obama was born in the US rises from 48% a year ago to 70% after he released his long form birth certificate.
*USA Today reports that Measles are on the rise, while inoculations for measles have declined...
*Washington Capitals owner Ted Leonsis says, the wheels fell off for us..." after Tampa Bay swept the Caps.
*Lanny Davis of Purple Nation asks can't we drop the extremist political harping and have a feel good moment?
*Igor Volsky writes about Paul Ryan admitting at a town hall that his plan contains an individual mandate, too...
*Washington Post poll shows the number of people who believe President Obama was born in the US rises from 48% a year ago to 70% after he released his long form birth certificate.
*USA Today reports that Measles are on the rise, while inoculations for measles have declined...
*Washington Capitals owner Ted Leonsis says, the wheels fell off for us..." after Tampa Bay swept the Caps.
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