Jon Huntsman Slams Republican Party...

Jon Huntsman Slams Republican Party...


"I don’t know what world these people are living in..."


Many of us moderates found a lot to like in Jon Huntsman. Smart, personable and unwilling in most instances to run away from his education-we saw a Conservative who didn't shun science-he embraced it.  Someone who used less rhetoric than most of his peers. Someone who possessed more actual intellectual substance than most of his rivals on those debate stages. It didn't seem to me that he tried all that hard to really fit in with the Michelle Bachmann's, Herman Cain's and Rick Santorum's of the conservative world. Naturally, the most likely to be an ally of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (for reasons/policies not to mention a shared faith), the connection really materialized. Maybe it never could've with the idea of not one but two Mormons on a national ticket being unsettling to too many voters. The ticket usually winds up with complimentary pieces, not similar ones. 


Well, this evening in an interview at the 92nd Street Y Cultural and Community Center in New York City, Mr. Huntsman took no prisoners. He was highly critical of the GOP, his own performance in the debates and even played the Reagan card. 


After Huntsman was un-invited from a Florida fundraiser in March for publicly saying we should have a third party, he commented, "This is what they do in China on party matters if you talk off script." With additional comments on feeling like an "oddball" after he said he believed in science regarding global warming. He also suggested that former President Ronald Reagan would "likely not" win a national GOP nomination at this time/ 


Read the entire article below. I found it a compelling look at what could have been. Yes, there was never any serious ground-game and his finances were pitifully small compared to the war chest of Romney, but still. If America is looking for a more conservative alternative to President Obama, there would have been a lot to like in Jon Hunstman. And, as I've suggested before, if the Republican Party loses to President Obama in the Fall, it will need to look in the mirror and ask itself why it pushed itself so far to the right, especially on social issues in the run up to election day. 


Read the article here...

Source:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/jon-huntsman-trashes-gop-expresses-campaign-regre

New Hampshire Primary Results (Predicted)

Today is the first official primary of the 2012 Election season, with Mitt Romney the prohibitive favorite to win in convincing fashion. Given his residential proximity, his organisational strength, his deep pockets, etc., its difficult for me to conceive that anyone else could pull an upset in the Granite State. While his fellow GOP hopefuls have treated him rather rudely over the last few days, its not goin to matter enough to change anything. I fully suspect Romney wins by a wide margin and then heads South for the January 21st South Carolina primary. With a head of steam and better resources than anyone on the Republican side, the former Massachusetts Governor will be in a position to potentially seal the nomination. If he can place 2nd or better in South Carolina, and then finish first in Florida on the 31st, I say its over. Let the GOP coronation begin...

Credit, I suppose, goes to Jon Huntsman for his commitment to New Hampshire. Mimicking Rick Santorum's approach in Iowa, Huntsman has shown a slight surge after ceding the Iowa caucuses to keep his presence up in the Northeast. Huntsman should do no worse than third tonight, with a possibility of a second place finish not out of the question. I find Mr. Huntsman the most appealing of the Republican field, but he needs a miracle. He has virtually no organisation nationally to speak of, his fundraising is miles behind Romney's, and outside of Utah, most Americans don't really know who this guy is. I can't see him continuing to Carolina if he comes in a weak third or worse. Kind of a shame...

The favorite to come in second is Congressman Ron Paul, who's support is steady but limited in its appeal. There doesn't seem to be a new found sense of connection for the Libertarian, so his ceiling is quite limited. While his supporters are perhaps the most passionate of anyone's, his stances on Foreign Policy turn so many people off that his upside is quite small. He's got enough money to carry on, but he announced earlier this week that he's skipping Florida, because he knows he can't compete against Romney in the Sunshine State. The most lucid analysis I've heard recently about Paul is that he's trying to be heard, trying to secure a high profile speech time at the Republican Convention next Summer and try and elevate his son's (Rand Paul) national standing.

Seemingly locked into a fourth place is the former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich. Gingrich who has been the most vocal in attacking front-runner Romney, hasn't gained enough ground in New Hampshire to come in much higher. I think Gingrich is serving a purpose for Romney, in the long term. As Romney has seemingly strolled through the last few months and several debates, having to actually put up his political dukes isn't the worse thing that could happen to him. With the understanding that President Obama is a skilled debater, Romney could certainly use some better competition. Better he works up a good sweat and comes through it intact than is "kid-gloved" all the way until he faces off against the President and wonders what hit him. Gingrich is the best debater of all the Republican candidates, so he's a good foil. Santorum and Paul have taken a few whacks at him as well, but not with the same skill as Newt. Gingrich will be heading South Carolina and probably Florida, but beyond that, his audition for a VP slot and/or a Cabinet assignment seems to be wrapping up.

The surprise second place finisher in Iowa, Rick Santorum went to New Hampshire knowing that his ultra-conservative positions would not play as well there as they had in the Midwest a week earlier. You could make the argument that he would've been smart to do what Texas Governor Rick Perry did, which was to skip New Hampshire and get a jump on the rest of the GOP field by campaigning hard in South Carolina. On the other hand, the media buzz is with the front-runner and Santorum's probably getting more national attention this way than he would've by heading South. I think Santorum could be on the short list of VP candidates. A hard line Conservative would assuage fears from the far Right about a Romney Presidency. I wouldn't say he's the front-runner, but he's in the conversation.

Rick Perry has been in South Carolina since the weekend hoping that his Southern "street cred" serves him well in the Carolina primary on the 21st. His poll numbers are abysmal however with the most recent RealClearPolitics poll showing him in a weak 5th place slot with single digits. In spite of having a good bit of money, with poor showings in the first three States, there won't be any reason to go to Florida. Perry drops out after the South Carolina Primary and heads back to Texas.

In summary, the GOP nomination is Romney's to lose, Gingrich hangs around for at least the rest of January, as does Paul. Huntsman is finished by Florida. Santorum, depending on his finish in South Carolina, might also stick around into February. Perry's toast.




Sources:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-1590.html

...And then there were six...Bachman suspends campaign...

Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann has suspended her campaign at a mid day announcement.

Bachmann, coming off a disappointing 6th place performance in last night's Iowa caucus, leaves the campaign after slow but steady decline in the Iowa pools. She won the Iowa straw poll back in August, but in the months since then had seen her popularity and resonance with the Iowa voter decline. With support cratering and financial issues limiting how she could realistically fight on, a decision has apparently been made to step away now. The Associated Press has confirmed Bachmann has canceled all of her appearances in South Carolina, the next State she had hoped to contend in.

Bachmann's ultra conservative message and continued attacking of President Obama, while red meat for the far Right, failed to connect with that segment of Iowa caucus participants, who instead of supporting Bachmann or similarly defined Texas Governor Rick Perry, elected to throw their support behind former Pennsylvania Congressman Rick Santorum.

Perry announced last night that he too was canceling all of his South Carolina appointments and returning home to Texas to "assess" what his path forward should be.

So, that effectively reduces the field from seven down to five, with Jon Huntsman among this group. He won't be for long. He chose to ignore Iowa totally, perhaps out of financial limitations and concentrate on his home state of New Hampshire, where he sits in a distant fourth in most polls. Romney sits with a +40% rating compared to Huntsman's 4th place score of just under 11%.

Which leaves a field of four "serious" candidates remaining. Romney is in a terrific position, with a huge warchest, the best national organisation of anyone still competing, and workable poll numbers everywhere. Santorum needs to develop a national campaign structure almost overnight, which is hard to do. Driving around Iowa in a pickup with a few assistants may have been effective in the midwest, but its not going to work on a larger scale. Ron Paul had to be disappointed with his third place showing last night and while there's signs the GOP mainstream will try to play a little nicer with the Congressman, this isn't going to end well for him. Supporters of Bachmann/Perry will slide to Santorum, not Paul. Finally, Newt Gingrich is also very limited on funds and given how fast his star fell once the Romney-friendly pacs started their media onslaught, its probably over for the former Speaker. He won't leave without a fight, so its must see TV this weekend. Two debates are scheduled, Saturday at 9:00pm on ABC then followed quickly the next morning at 9:00am on NBC's Meet The Press. I suspect Gingrich will extract his pound of flesh over the weekend, come in 3rd place in the NH primary on January 10th, possibly carry on to South Carolina, fall to Romney once more, then drop out.

With Florida's primary coming up on the 31st, I suspect we'll be down to at least three candidates, possibly two if Santorum doesn't get his national organisation and fundraising improved ten-fold. Paul has a good bank account going forward, and doesn't seem inclined to go gentle into that good night.

Barring some unforseen scandal, Romney has the nomination wrapped up by St. Patricks Day.

The pre-season will be over, then comes the main event...


Source:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/bachmann-ends-presidential-run-source-20120104

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/04/michele-bachmann-dropping-out-concedes-iowa-caucus_n_1183120.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html

Iowa Caucus Wrap-up...

Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney split win in Iowa caucus...


Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney wound up in a photo-finish in last night's Iowa Caucus. Libertarian candidate Ron Paul came in third, followed by Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann.

The breakdown: (with 99.0% reporting)

1) Santorum 24.6%
2) Romney 24.6%
3) Paul 21.3%
4) Gingrich 13.3%
5) Perry 10.3%
6) Bachmann  5%
7) Huntsman  <1%

 Rick Santorum has to be thrilled with his performance. Just a few weeks ago thought to be dead in the water, Santorum's timing was perfect as he rode a late surge to outperform several other Republicans who had peaked earlier in this campaign season. This finish should help Santorum immensely with financial donations and Santorum heads to New Hampshire. Mitt Romney is also likely pleased with the outcome given that just a few weeks ago, Romney wasn't even trying to compete in Iowa. With the massive lead Romney has in the New Hampshire polls, look for the former Massachusetts Governor to have quite the head of steam as he heads to South Carolina and Florida. 

Ron Paul's 3rd place finish surprised me a bit as I had drank the kool-aid and felt his supporters were more organised and more enthused than anyone else's, but, I was wrong. He's got money so we'll see how the next few weeks plays out for Mr. Paul. 

Coming in 4th was Newt Gingrich, whose fall from grace in the last three weeks was impressive...in a bad way was apparently never a serious threat to finish in the top three, but after outside PAC groups started paying for media buys attacking the former Speaker, his numbers just cratered. 

Behind Gingrich came Texas Governor Rick Perry who entered the campaign months ago with great fanfare, only to (likely) be the first candidate to drop out, announced a change in his plans to head to South Carolina immediately after the Iowa Caucus was over. In his speech late last night, he said he plans to return to Texas and assess what his role in this campaign going forward should be. I think that's Texas code for "I'm done...you boys have fun..."

Last AND least, Michelle Bachmann, who tonight claimed "I am not a politician" had a miserable evening and in her speech afterwards suggested she was going to carry on. To what avail, I don't know. 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Santorum is still a long, long shot to win the nomination. Romney is in great shape heading to New Hampshire plus various media reports are reporting Arizona Senator John McCain will endorse him tomorrow. Ron Paul will continue to be a novelty candidate but he's not a viable national candidate. Gingrich seems royally pissed at Romney for knee-capping him via PAC media buys, and will probably make it his mission over the next few weeks to return the favor personally. It may make him feel better, but it won't extend his campaign. Perry's done by this time next week. Bachmann should've been done tonight. Jon Huntsman needs a miracle...

Somewhere in Minnesota, Tim Pawlenty is vomiting...

Paul leads in Iowa - Public Policy Polling, 538 Blog...

Paul leads in Iowa - Public Policy Polling:

The latest PPP results reveal a continued slide for Newt Gingrich and good news for Ron Paul...

Ron Paul- 23%

Mitt Romney - 20%

Newt Gingrich - 14%

Rick Santorum - 10%

Michelle Bachmann - 10%

Rick Perry - 10%

Jon Huntsman - 4%

Paul is known for having the best ground game in Iowa of all the candidates. Gingrich, in the last two weeks, has seen his support fall from 27% to 22% to 14%.

The New York Times' Nate Silver's 538 Blog has the following projection:

Ron Paul- 24%

Mitt Romney - 21%

Newt Gingrich - 16%

Michelle Bachmann - 11%

Rick Perry - 11%

Rick Santorum - 10%
Jon Huntsman, misc - 7%

The Iowa Caucus is scheduled for January 3rd, 2012

Source:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/paul-leads-in-iowa.html

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

The weakness of the Republican field...

The weakness of the Republican field should be a concern to those Conservatives who are counting on Barack Obama being a one term President.

In about a year, we'll go to the polls and vote for the next President of the United States of America. Our current President, Barack Obama, is by many predictions facing no better than a 50/50 shot to serve another four years. Ask some Conservatives and they'll claim "Obama has no chance" to get re-elected. Citing the sluggish economy, unemployment still over 9%, and tepid support for the President's signature piece of legislation, healthcare's Affordable Care Act, it all adds up to an uphill climb for Mr. Obama. That is real, not imagined. Throw in Obama's approval ratings and you can easily make the case that enough Independents plus virtually ALL Conservatives will send a new person to Washington D. C. to serve as the Commander in Chief next November.

The "Change you can hope for" mantra is mostly retired these days. The fantasy that a relative new face on the national political scene could stroll into our Capital on the mojo from a stirring speech in Boston a few years prior, a sizzlingly efficient campaign for President, and a personal story like none other and fundamentally change how politics and/or the Government works has proven to be just that. A fantasy. Obama loses more than he wins. An obstructionist Congress, an inability to construct an attractive message for the US public on his goals and programs, etc. all add up to a less than stellar first four years and abounding doubt and uncertainty from all sides.

Progressives feel dissatisfied that Obama hasn't fought harder for their causes, while Conservatives feel that Obama is at the very least unqualified and ineffective and quite possibly a Socialist leaning nightmare trying to drag the USA into the European Union. Even with a super majority as he entered office back in 2008, Obama did not have the sway within his own party (probably due to his lack of experience and relationships within his party) to take full advantage. At no time more evident than during the health reform battle, the new President was not only battling Republicans every step of the way, but also Congressional Democrats from Louisiana to Nebraska who wanted/needed special deals to be able to support Obama's Health care reform. The whole process was clumsy and sucked most of the political capital he entered office with. Obama is not what you call popular. Polls suggest that most Americans think Obama is a good person, but not quite heading us in the right direction.

Eight Republicans are each making the case that they should represent the Grand Old Party next year to try and unseat President Obama. These are mostly candidates from the world of Politics. From a sitting Governor (Perry) to former Governors (Romney) to current Congressmen/women (Paul/Bachmann) to former Congressmen (Gingrich/Santorum) and a diplomat (Huntsman). The other candidate Herman Cain, former CEO of Godfathers Pizza, who has worked mostly in the private sector but has a long history of involvement with Government and politicians.

Lots of experience in that field. Which should, you'd think, play to the appetite of the electorate. "Sure, we liked Obama, but he just didn't know how to get things done..." This group of eight Conservatives know how Washington works and should provide Independents with an appealing option for those wanting change. Whoever emerges from this group should absolutely crush Obama in the next election, sending him back to Chicago, Hawaii or wherever the hell he comes from.

Easy, eh?

There's just one problem.

None of these eight folks seem to have that much appeal, at least so far, to the general public. In recent polls, the candidate most likely to represent Republicans, Mitt Romney is just about even with President Obama in head to head comparisons. No one else of that group of eight does as well as Romney does when compared to Obama. Which means whatever message that's being received from the GOP hopefuls isn't connecting with Independents. Maybe it will in time, most people aren't really paying attention yet, but it hasn't yet.

Romney should be the guy who takes down Obama. This, his second kick at the presidential can, seems to be progressing rather nicely and without any major problems. He's got truckloads of money, more endorsements than any other Republican has so far, and well, dammit-he looks Presidential, doesn't he? The debates seem to be no problem for the former Massachusetts Governor and even the presumed Achilles heel of his "RomneyCare" which served as a blueprint for Obamacare, hasn't seemed to be a poison pill. The biggest concern for Mitt Romney is that apparently many Conservatives don't find him Conservative enough. He's evolved a few positions over the years and hard liners dont' known if they can trust him. That's more of an issue during the primary season than it will be during the General Election. Is Romney as Conservative as Rick Santorum or Michelle Bachmann? No, but what will Conservatives do if Romney is what the Party puts up against Obama? Vote for the other guy? No way. They'll vote for Romney just to get Obama out of office and worry about the rest later.

"Anybody but Obama" is more than just a bumper sticker, trust me.

In the early days of this campaign, Michelle Bachmann stormed through Iowa and won the straw poll there as well. A Congresswoman from Minnesota, she is known for saying rather odd things at times and isn't well known outside of her State and hard core Conservative circles. Ridin' high she was, but that very same day Bachmann won in Iowa, another Conservative, a Governor from Texas named Rick Perry announced his candidacy for President. Whooosh, went Bachmann's energy. She's never been the same since. Gov. Perry, a late entry to the field, has not exactly delivered what he was expected to. With consistently poor, at times excruciatingly bad, performances in the debates so far, Perry numbers have dive-bombed as Bachmann did before him. Combine the debate debacles with some questionable policy stances, Mr. Perry doesn't seem to be nearly as attractive now that we know him than when we didn't.

Ron Paul, a long time Texas Congressman with strong Libertarian leanings has done so far, what everyone expected him to do. Less Government, smaller Military, less Foreign Aid (even to Israel), a more diplomatic approach to Iran, etc. Mr. Paul seems the most genuine of the pack. He has been saying the same message for a long, long time. He doesn't shape it to boost his poll numbers, which is honorable. His politics don't have a mainstream appeal within the Republican party, let alone across all Independents.

Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House during the '90's, has had an up and down campaign. Early on, Gingrich made some inartful remarks towards Paul Ryan's budget plan which he then blamed on the media. Then there was a dustup about his credit account at Tiffany's. Then changes in his campaign staff produced rumors that he was about to drop out. Gingrich assumed a low profile and has enjoyed a resurgence of sorts over the last few weeks. Still a long shot, the former Speaker seems to have found a comfort zone over the last several debates, attacking alternately both President Obama and the Media, which are two very easy to swallow messages in Republican circles these days. Its very questionable this will lead to meaningful national approval among independents and Gingrich seems to represent the old guard to the modern voter.

Herman Cain, the businessman, produced a fresh, bold economic plan called 9-9-9. Criticized by many for being too hard on the poor, that idea has failed to give him the national traction he hoped for. The allegations of sexual harassment by several different women from Cain's professional past hasn't hurt him too badly in the court of public opinion...yet. Voters looking for a more experienced person to replace Obama probably don't find Cain's never holding elected office disconcerting. The Cain train may be charming and refreshing to some, but doesn't seem to have captured the imagination of the party, let alone the nation.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum has aggressively planted his flag to the right of just about everyone else in this group, but doesn't seem to be getting rewarded for his effort. Performing terribly in the polls, the Santorum campaign is running out of money and time.

Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman is running a very weird campaign. Despite being in New Hampshire with a promise to win that state's primary, Huntsman has maintained an oddly low profile in the State. For example, the Huntsman campaign has zero television advertising running in New Hampshire. For a nationally unknown candidate such as he, you'd expect a bigger media push, but there isn't one.

So, if its accepted that Romney will most likely be the guy to go up against President Obama, it will be a romp, right? Nope...

By having what I consider a weak GOP field, Romney isn't being pushed very hard at all. While he's easy to take, he's representative of the big corporate world, which is hardly a popular image these days. I'm not sure Romney excites anyone, either. Barack Obama, even after these lack-luster four years, still knows how to give a speech and raise money. Mitt Romney seems really good at not doing anything dumb to hurt his chances at becoming President next November. Conversely, President Obama is now very accustomed to being under attack, from all sides.

By lacking a more formidable opponent, Romney should slide right through to the nomination. Which sets up a Republican candidate who's barely had to sweat to secure his party's nod, against a sitting President, who has been under attack since day one. Can Romney turn it on when he needs to? Can he match Obama's debating skills, which are assured to be far more aggressive than anything the other Conservatives threw at Romney during the primaries?

I think if Tim Pawlenty had stayed around longer than he did, if Chris Christie, Sarah Palin, Mitch Daniels, etc. had participated in the primary fray with Romney overcoming all of them to secure the Republican Nomination, Obama would likely be toast. But they didn't.

If the economy comes back another 1.5% in the next 8 months, if unemployment falls under 8%, etc...Obama will have plenty of weapons in his arsenal to use against a mostly untried opponent in Mitt Romney. It will be anything but a slam dunk. As Obama cites his various victories, Republican obstructionism, etc. Romney will no longer get the kid glove treatment. It should be quite the show


Sources:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWynt87PaJ0

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/07/opinion/sunday/what-happened-to-obamas-passion.html?pagewanted=all

http://www.valleypatriot.com/VP0611ormsby.htm

http://www.mittromney.com/s/welcome

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/82621-obama-healthcare-plan-nixes-ben-nelsons-cornhusker-kickback-deal

http://www.michelebachmann.com/

http://www.rickperry.org/join-today/

http://www.ronpaul2012.com/

http://www.newt.org/

http://www.hermancain.com/

https://www.ricksantorum.com/

http://www.jon2012.com/welcome/home.html

GOP Power Rankings 10/23/11...

GOP Power Rankings 10/23/2011...


As we head into late October, we can see the one year mark from the general election not far away. As the debates continue, individual State primaries begin in less than three months. The GOP field hasn't seen anyone leave the campaign trail just yet. As we approach the primaries, we'll see most donations targeted to the candidates that can make a serious case to defeat President Obama next year. Fundraising is key, and a few candidates are in serious trouble on this front. Stars have risen and fallen over the last few months and through it all, Mitt Romney just keeps shining. Currently the #1 candidate to represent the Republican Party to push Obama to the unemployment line, Mr. Romney has money, momentum and most importantly, apparently no equals in the race for the nomination.

NEXT DEBATE: November 9th, 2011 on CNBC...

This week's rankings:

1) Mitt Romney-Yes, Perry and Santorum knocked him around in the last debate, but to what end? Absorbing mostly body blows, Romney leads the pack in Gallups Ballot Support rankings and recognition, sits 2nd in positive intensity to only Herman Cain. Compared to Rick Perry who sits sixth in the positive intensity rankings. Despite the fuss that Bachmann, Perry and now Mr. Cain have generated enough long lasting heat to make things uncomfortable for Romney. Financially, Romney had the second highest donations, $14 Million, which was just under Perry's take of 17 Million. Romney is in good shape going forward...

2) Herman Cain-Mr. Cain got a rough ride at the start of the last GOP debate but was able to hang on long enough to allow the Romney/Perry sideshow take over. Cain has made nice progress over the last several week in both polls and fundraising. Speaking of fundraising, Cain made a personal loan of $175K to his own campaign. Having raised only 2.8M in the last quarter, this is an area where his recent wave of popularity will need to translate to money. While Romney and Perry both brought in at least 14 million, less than 3 million won't cut it.

3) Rick Perry-Last quarter's biggest fundraising champion, Perry has shown an ability to quickly raise some cash, albeit most of it from his home state of Texas. Debates are clearly not his strong suit and his roughing up of Romney seems to have turned off as many as it impressed. Despite his fanfare, Perry's national numbers have slid backwards since he officially joined the campaign, which is a very bad sign. Lots of problems facing Perry right now.

4) Newt Gingrich-Off a slightly stronger debate last week, somehow the former Speaker of the House is still hanging around. Left for dead over the Summer, Mr. Gingrich has a long way to go to entering the upper tier ranks of GOP contenders. Financially, he hasn't reported a total for the third quarter. In the prior quarter, Gingrich reported fundraising of just over $2M dollars. Third in Gallups positive intensity rankings, Gingrich hasn't gone away yet. Developing a taste for surly exchanges with debate moderators, Gingrich may have turned the ship around, but I see him a million miles away from the top three tier.

5) Rick Santorum-Santorum has been scoring points of late with the far Right of the Right and has certainly had his share of favorable moments in the last few debates. While playing to the base may feel good, its highly unlikely Santorum is attracting new voters to his team, as witnessed in the 3rd quarter fundraising number, which were dismal. His fundraising take for the quarter? Less than one million dollars. That will need to be improved upon and quickly for him to survive. His comments a few days ago that he wants the defund all Federal dollars that help pay for contraception won't woo many women to his side. His recent surge might...might...put him on a few candidates short list for VP if they need votes from the far right.

6) Ron Paul-Mr. Paul has no shot. Once he openly suggested that the United States stop sending foreign aid to Israel, any sliver of hope he was holding on to wafted away. I give him credit, he has balls, his stances are compelling to me and his frankness is refreshing. Paul is capable at raising money, with over 8M in 3rd qtr. reporting. He's likely to be around for several months. It will be interesting to see if he can stay relevant in the GOP race for the White House nomination.

7) Michelle Bachmann-Iowa seems so long ago, doesn't it? With her start crashing back to earth, there are problems everywhere. Several of her staff in New Hampshire have quit on her campaign, he fundraising for Q3 came in at just over 4M, but her overall organisation is now over 500K in debt. On top of all that, she has the highest "Strongly Unfavorable" of all the candidates vying for the GOP nomination. Yikes...

8) John Huntsman-Focusing mostly on New Hampshire, Huntsman's has nothing working for at the moment. Last in most of the polls, his campaign is over 800K in debt and that includes a personal loan to his campaign of about 2.5M. The end is fast approaching for Mr. Huntsman.






Overall Rankings: (The lower the score, the better...)
(After 8 rankings...)

1. Romney - 9
2. Perry - 31
3. Bachmann - 36
4. Cain - 38
5. Santorum - 55
6. Paul - 59 
7. Huntsman - 64
8. Gingrich - 73

(NOTE: Rankings are compiled by simply adding the rankings each week to a running total of same...)


Sources:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/third-quarter-gop-fundraising-totals/2011/10/15/gIQA9gXemL_story.html

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2011/10/huntsman-money-troubles/1

Is the race for the GOP nomination already over?

Is the race for the GOP nomination already over?


The Republican National Convention is scheduled for August 27th through the 30th, 2012 in Tampa, Florida. Delegates from all the fifty states will decide on who the person is that should run against President Barack Obama. I expect turnout to be above average as the electorate seems to be more polarized now than in recent years. While in the past, some voters have felt one party or another had to go, this time, there's that plus the issues (to some) of us having a Socialist, a Muslim and a Radical that needs to go. The thought of Barack Obama winning reelection is quite unsettling to some.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There are daily headlines regarding this field of eight or so candidates for the honor of facing off against Obama in 2012. Make no mistake, no matter who of these eight people wind up with the party's official nomination, ALL will be working toward putting their guy in office. There are jobs to be had, within the potentially new administration and, frankly jobs to be had in the media. To fade away after falling out of contention for the nomination will, I think, carry a high price tag.

A coherent argument could be made that this is already a done deal. While the polls tell us Governor Perry is in the lead, remember that polls are merely a snapshot of how things look today. The real poll isn't for another fourteen months and that one counts. There will be much gnashing of teeth and both dollars and words expended  over the next few months, to be sure. I'm not so sure it will matter a great deal.

I say Mitt Romney has the nomination all but locked up.

Barring a scandal or some unforeseen blunder of epic proportions, I see no path where someone else defeats him.

Tim Pawlenty was supposed to, some felt, be a guy who could match Romney. As the debates started, Tpaw talked a pretty good game and at the second GOP debate, he had a golden opportunity to deliver a direct hit to Romney over his health care plan in Massachusetts. Pawlenty mumbled and for the most part, passed on this chance. Romney was exposed, Pawlenty had a clear shot but refused to take it. For that reason and a few others, mostly financial, we waved goodbye to Mr. Pawlenty several weeks ago.

Next it was Michelle Bachmann who was supposed to be a real threat to Romney. Possessing better and more established street cred among hard core conservatives, we wondered how that matchup might go down. It never materialized. On the day that Bachmann was riding high in Iowa after winning the straw poll, the fortunes of Mrs. Bachmann was undercut by a new face in the race. A savvy Texan strode into Iowa the same weekend Bachmann won and sucked all the air out of Bachmann's balloon. The Bachmann campaign has not been the same since. As Bachmann quickly became virtually irrelevant overnight, Mitt Romney no longer had to waste any bullets on her. Rick Perry took care of that for him.

Speaking of Rick Perry...

Gov. Perry attractiveness seemed to peak somewhere around the time he declared his intention on seeking the nomination. Yes, the polls have been kind to him but he's drawn all the fire that may have been aimed at Gov. Romney. Debating does not seem to be his strong suit and he looked flat out bad the last two debates. His attempt to expose Romney as a guy who changes his tune based on statements in his books, fell flat. It was like he had marbles in his mouth or something. He seems so uncomfortable, so ill-prepared compared to Romney that I don't think a few weeks of debate prep will totally address. He can do better, certainly. Whether he can do so much better as to nullify his recent performances is a question I look forward to seeing answered.

Romney needs a Southern strategy to defeat Obama in the general, and a Romney/Perry ticket would be a very tough one to overcome. Perry would bring along the Tea Party base and give comfort to those who doubt Romney's allegiance to the conservative ideology. If Romney seems to take it easy on Perry over the next few debates, it could be because he wants him to be able to accept a VP offer. If he destroys Perry, then I think that's a signal that Romney has some other idea in mind for both a Southern strategy and a VP nomination. (Marco Rubio anyone?)

That leaves five other known candidates that Romney has to defeat. I see four of them, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and John Huntsman in a group of candidates that can't win the nomination and simply don't match up to Gov. Romney in terms of financial support, size of organisations, boots on the ground, status, etc. Paul has a message that resonates with a small but passionate group of voters, but doesn't seem to have the ability to grow his popularity in any serious way. Santorum has some conservative credentials but again lacks in almost every way when compared to Romney. Gingrich's campaign is a mess. Deeply in debt, mass defections, poor poll numbers, etc. all point towards a failed campaign for the former Speaker of the House. Huntsman showed a glimmer of hope a couple debates ago, but hasn't really demonstrated an ability to capitalize on it whatsoever. Horrific poll numbers, despite his obvious intelligence, the Huntsman campaign seems to be going nowhere fast.

Which leaves us Mr. Herman Cain...

Mr. Cain surprised many with his victory in the Florida straw poll last weekend. Today, a Zogby poll shows Cain ahead of everybody. By a healthy margin of 10% over Perry and 11% over Romney. Its interesting to note this poll was conducted after the Orlando poll but before the straw poll results were announced. Cain is riding high right now and may bump Perry out of the spotlight. As nice as all of this is for the Cain supporters, I have to believe the sheer size of the Romney organisation and coffers means at some point, Cain's campaign is going to run into a wall.

Many questions remain.

Will Romney have to fend off a serious challenge from anyone? Will it be Perry? Cain? Booth of them/none of them? Hard to say, but whatever they throw at Romney, I don't see it doing enough damage to really matter. As long as Mitt Romney can avoid the landmines and nothing scandalous comes out, I think he's the Republican Party's nomination for President in 2012.

GOP Power Rankings 9/25/11...

Mitt Stays #1, field falling behind...


NEXT DEBATE: Tuesday, October 11, 2011   8:00pm Bloomberg 


As we approach the end of September, we've seen three debates in the last few weeks, a surprising victory in the Florida Straw poll and a star may be flickering faster than anyone thought...

This weeks rankings:

1) Mitt Romney- Sitting second in most polls, Mr. Romney has been a picture of discipline, control and poise in the debates thus far. Governor Perry has attempted to take a few shots at him, but hasn't been able to find his target. While this race is largely perceived as a two horse race, the feeling I have is that the Romney campaign has to be delighted where things stand. Maybe Perry will find his mojo and shake things up, but so far, Mitt Romney seems to be taking all of this debate business in stride. I think the Romney campaign is built for a long run. It doesn't matter who's ahead in September '11. This may be very premature, but I have a feeling this race might already be over. (Last Ranking: #1)

2) Rick Perry- The front runner, if you believe the pollsters. Which I do not. The potential is there for Governor Perry to improve his aim when it comes to Romney, the question is will that potential be realized? Perry looked bad in the last few debates and with his stance on immigration being what it is, he can count on a lot of attention in the next few debates. His debate prep must improve, dramatically before the Bloomberg debate on the 11th. He needs a strong showing to prove his worth to investors and potential voters. (Last Ranking: #2)

3) Herman Cain-The surprise winner of the Florida straw poll elevates Mr. Cain to his highest ranking yet. While he hasn't got the attention severity of questions that Romney/Perry have, he hasn't squandered what opportunities have been had. His claim that he'd be dead under Obamacare is so fully wrong, I wonder if any of the other candidates might dare call him on it. His 9-9-9 strategy still sounds like a pizza deal than an economic plan. (Last Ranking: #6)

4) Rick Santorum-Santorum has an easy to swallow message for most Conservative voters. He's not afraid to challenge the other candidates on stage and plays to the crowd quite well. Coming in 4th in the Florida straw poll but a weak 7th in the Michigan version on Sunday, Santorum is probably satisfied where he is. Not thought to be a serious candidate, he is making himself relevant nonetheless. He has sucked up some of the momentum that Michelle Bachmann several weeks ago. But like Bachmann, Santorum may be but a memory by the time we get to the holidays. His financial reports in a few days will tell us a lot about how long he can afford to remain in the hunt. (Last Ranking: #5)

5) Ron Paul- Mr. Paul continues to stay on message. That's both a good thing and a bad thing. People have a pretty good feel for what Ron Paul is all about. As a darkhorse however, he doesn't get invited to play in the big boys sandbox often enough to make much headway in the big scheme of things. Between him and Mr. Gingrich, the elder statesmen of the GOP field seem cranky, evasive and more and more irrelevant with each debate. (Last Ranking: #8)

6) Michelle Bachmann-Suggested that citizens get to keep all of their income, and send none of it to the government. A silly answer when she had an opportunity to put her tax plan out their for all to see. After all, she is a former tax litigation attorney, so she should've had some intelligent answer ready to go. To swing and miss at a nasty curve ball is one thing. To swing and miss when its sitting on a tee is very telling. Her position on HPV vaccines is also unattractive to many indepentdent voters. Her star is fading. We knew it had to all along. Iowa seems so far away, doesn't it Mrs. Bachmann? (Last Ranking: #3)

7) Newt Gingrich- I'm running out of ideas on what to write in terms of Mr. Gingrich as a viable Presidential candidate. He's just not. Yes, he's polling slightly better than he was a month ago, but this isn't going to end well. Speaking of how this all ends for the former Speaker of the House, I think he would make a very interesting choice for the next POTUS's chief of staff. Think about it...he knows how the game is played, doesn't he? Don't rule it out...(Last Ranking: #7)

8) John Huntsman-A few weeks ago I thought Huntsman might have found a way to inject himself into the adults discussion, but I was wrong. Smart, interesting background, wealthy Huntsman is at the bottom of most of the polls and shows no sign of improving on this anytime soon. He has some interesting ideas, but zero traction. Its a toss up between him and Gingrich who bails first. (Last Ranking: #4)

Overall Rankings: (The lower the score, the better...)
(After 7 rankings...)

1. Romney - 8
2. Bachmann - 22
3. Perry - 28
4. Cain - 38

5. Santorum - 50

7. Paul - 53 

8. Huntsman - 64
9. Gingrich - 69

(NOTE: Rankings are compiled by simply adding the rankings each week to a running total of same...)

Republican Candidates Power Rankings 8/14/11...

(UPDATE: Tim Pawlenty announced this morning on ABC's This week with Christiane Amanpour that given his performance in the Ames, Iowa straw poll, he will be ending his campaign. )

Quite the week...

Mitt Romney performed well during Thursday's debate, Michelle Bachmann wins the Ames, Iowa straw poll and Rick Perry officially announces his candidacy. How's all of this effect this weeks GOP Power Rankings? Read on...

1) Mitt Romney - Romney remains number one until someone knocks him down a peg or two. So far, no one's laid a glove on him. That may change now that Texas Governor Rick Perry is officially in the hunt. Staying above the fray during Thursday's Fox news debate is smart strategy, but its not a strategy that can last forever. Someone will line him up and attempt to take his head off. If I were his strategist, I might tell him to go on the offensive and not wait for someone to come after him. He's still the front-runner, he's still has the most money and the largest organisation of anyone. Its better to give a punch than take one. Just ask Tim Pawlenty. (Last Ranking: #1)

2) Michelle Bachmann - Winner of the 2011 Ames, Iowa straw poll, Bachmann had a terrific week. On Thursday, she proved she could go toe to toe with Tim Pawlenty, although she got her facts rather mixed up on TPaw's  policies while he was Governor of Minnesota. While edging out Ron Paul for 1st place in Ames, she more than doubled the votes that Pawlenty got, which is great news for her, terrible news for him. Bachmann should be able to hang around for quite a while, which earns her extra chips to use come endorsement time. I doubt she will be the nominee, but she will have a comfy, soft landing somewhere...(Last Ranking: #2) 

3) Rick Perry - The Texas Governor officially announced his intention to pursue the Presidency early Saturday afternoon. None of the candidates are thrilled about this, especially Romney, Bachmann and Santorum. Perry is the worthy opponent Romney has been lacking, while Bachmann and Santorum are lighter, less serious versions of Gov. Perry. His organisation and fundraising are several steps behind the others, but I'm guessing that those who were pushing him will see to it that neither holds him back. (Last Ranking: #3) 

4) Rick Santorum - I know, I know...Santorum finished dead last in both the recent CNN and Fox news polls but both were conducted before last weeks debate. Nonetheless, I felt Santorum did pretty well during the debate, and his 4th place showing in the straw poll is better than I thought he'd do. I still consider him a massive long shot, but if he can keep putting together weeks like the one he just did, he may surprise us all. He's the candidate who's quickly becoming the pain in the ass that no one needs. Perry's entrance hurts him more than most, but Perry isn't really aiming at him, is he? (Last Ranking: #8)

5) Ron Paul - The "Babe Ruth" of straw polls narrowly missed taking first place from Bachmann. Combine this with a solid showing during the debate and it adds up to a reasonably good week for Paul. However, Paul usually does well during the straw poll and then slips in the primaries. His frank remarks about Iran and nuclear weapons during the debate will probably hurt him going forward. I look for Paul to attack Romney, Bachmann and Perry directly next debate as he needs to prove he belongs in the upper tier of candidates. (Last Ranking: #4) 

6) Herman Cain - For someone who basically came out of nowhere to stand on a national stage with some veteran politicians, Cain is doing better than expected. The only other candidate to amass more than 1000 votes, he was only 200 votes behind Santorum, and finished in 5th place. He didn't help himself a great deal during the last debate, so how he campaigns over the next few weeks will be interesting. Does he keep his head down and stay out of the limelight and try and hang around or doe he go on the attack? (Last Ranking: #7) 

7) Tim Pawlenty - Rough week for TPaw. First he barely breaks even in a donneybrook with Michelle Bachmann on the Thursday night debate, but then she kicks his ass in Saturday's Straw Poll, by more than a two to one margin. I know his campaign quickly released a statement that he was staying in the race, but who exactly would donate money to him? If he couldn't rise up to one of the top two slots before Rick Perry was around, what makes anyone think he'll do so now that Perry is on board? There might be one more debate in his future, but he's got to come up with something dramatic in order to survive much longer. (Last Ranking: #6)

8) Sarah Palin - In spite of Mrs. Palin being in Iowa "for the State Fair" of course, its appears that she will not be running. Her camp says a decision will be announced by  the end of Summer. I fully expect her to continue on at Fox News as a commentator. Which is probably best for everyone involved. In spite of what an old classmate thinks, Palin is NOT the answer to any of our problems. She is best at self-promotion and taking cheap shots at Democrats. While I fantasized about her and Gingrich going at it, it's not gonna happen. I look forward to culling her from the GOP herd by month's end. (Hopefully) (Last Ranking: #5) 

9) Newt Gingrich - A pathetic showing in Ames after a fiesty performance in the debate this week doesn't move the needle enough to reconsider his chances. Rick Santorum got over 4 times the votes Newt did while BOTH Bachmann and Paul got more than 12 times the number of votes. Yes, he might be the smartest guy in the room but he has royally screwed this campaign up. Fundraising is a major problem for the former Speaker of the House. How long does he allow this embarrassment to go on? (Last Ranking: #9)

10) John Huntsman - Isn't this a nice new picture of Huntsman I found? Take a good look at it because I think the Huntsman campaign (and his mug shot) will be going away very soon. He did nothing to distinguish himself during the debate and he got 69 more votes in Iowa than I did. Was it really all that bad working for the Obama Administration? China's pretty cool, right? (Last Ranking: #10)

Overall Rankings: (The lower the score, the better...)

(After 5 rankings...)

 

1. Romney - 5
2. Bachmann - 10
3. Perry - 22
4. Cain - 23

5. Pawlenty - 27 (Withdrew from race)
6. Palin - 28
7. Santorum - 34 

8. Paul - 36

9. Huntsman - 44

10. Gingrich - 46






(NOTE: Rankings are compiled by simply adding the rankings each week to a running total of same...)