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| What did he say? |
Michelle Bachmann said he
said it...
John Boehner and Eric Cantor said he
said it...
But....
The question is did President Obama actually promise if Congress approved his stimulus package back in 2009, that unemployment wouldn't go above 8%?
Obama never said those words. Look it up...
I'm hearing it quite often these days from the GOP candidates as they take the first steps on their long walks to the Republican nomination. Its a juicy sounding claim to say the President lied about how high unemployment would go. Its just not true.
Fact is, two of his advisors made that statement, along with plenty of caveats and disclaimers. Christina
Romer, chairwoman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, and Jared Bernstein, the vice president's top economic adviser. It was from a joint effort called the "Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan.
From Politifact:
"It should be understood that all of the estimates presented in this memo are subject to significant margins of error," the report states. "There is the more fundamental uncertainty that comes with any estimate of the effects of a program. Our estimates of economic relationships and rules of thumb are derived from historical experience and so will not apply exactly in any given episode. Furthermore, the uncertainty is surely higher than normal now because the current recession is unusual both in its fundamental causes and its severity."
There's also a footnote that goes along with the chart that states: "Forecasts of the unemployment rate without the recovery plan vary substantially. Some private forecasters anticipate unemployment rates as high as 11% in the absence of action."
The Administration has acknowledged its projections were wrong. Just like the non partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections were wrong as well.
Words matter. Obama had been office a very short time and his team came up with a set of projections they felt were credible. They warned through the report that the estimates were prone to fluctuations, given the volatility of the financial markets. There's no debate they were under estimating how high unemployment would go. It is fair to say they should've had a better projection. (Although the people that do budgets, cost estimates, etc. for a living also blew it...) To suggest however, that Obama is a liar because he "promised" unemployment wouldn't go above 8% is simply untrue.
This election cycle like those before it will have an endless supply of unfair allegations like this one. To the average Hannity or Beck listener/viewer, it sounds plausible. Its certainly something they'd be inclined to agree with and share with their like minded friends. It grows and grows. There will many more by the time November 2012 arrives. On both sides. As interested voters, its our job to fact check everything that we hear. Trust no one. Not Fox, not MSNBC, or whoever you prefer.
Just as important, ask yourself why does a particular person misrepresent the facts? If you consider Hannity or Olbermann to always tell you the truth, why are they actually failing you? Often on a nightly basis. If you belong to a political personality's fan club, you might be prone to accepting some pleasant sounding but factually wrong information.
It bothers me.
It should bother you.
Its very vogue these days to toss around quotes from the founding fathers, so consider this from Thomas Jefferson:
If we are to guard against ignorance and remain free, it is the responsibility of every American to be informed."
Sources:
