IMPEACHMENT IS DONE WITH - Q & A time...

 With the acquittal of former President Donald Trump yesterday, there's a lot to chew on. Here's what I'm thinking about today. 

In question and answer form, a few thoughts...

Q) DOES THE ACQUITTAL HELP TRUMP'S 2024 CHANCES TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT AGAIN?

A) Yes and no. Yes, because it's a long-acting injection straight into the vein of the Trump base. Trump's been playing the "victim" for a long, long time. He's good at it, too. If he decides to run himself in 2024, "THEY TRIED TO IMPEACH ME  - AGAIN - AND LOST - AGAIN!!!" will be part of every campaign speech he makes. He'll paint a picture that the Democrats hate him And all of the good Americans who supported him in 2020, too. On the other hand, it won't help him because, by the largest margins in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, members of his own party have turned on him by the casting of votes, not to Trump's liking. 

Q) WHY DID THE DEMS NOT CALL ON MORE WITNESSES TO TESTIFY? 

A) From the reporting I've read, it comes to two main reasons. First, the witnesses from the Trump-world like Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and others from former Vice President Mike Pence's world showed no interest in cooperating with the House Managers. To compel them to testify would've meant subpoenas, which would've been challenged in Court. Then the appeals that were sure to come, etc, etc, etc. It could've dragged on months. Additionally, the GOP leaders in the Senate apparently made it clear that had witnesses been insisted upon, the Dems and President Joe Biden could kiss goodbye their desire to get the rest of Biden's Cabinet confirmed and any legislation passed. Realizing that no amount of testimony, regardless of how damning it was toward Trump, would change enough Republican votes to result in a guilty verdict the Democratic Managers decided a faster acquittal was preferable to a drawn-out acquittal. 

Q) ARE THE REPUBLICANS AFRAID TRUMP - WOULDN'T THEY BE BETTER OFF WITHOUT HIM? 

A) They're not afraid of Trump. The consensus seems to believe that had the vote to determine guilt on Saturday been a "secret ballot" instead of a public one, the former President may have lost handily. Did Minority Leader Mitch McConnell sound afraid to you when he said this after the vote was counted:

No, he's not afraid of Trump. 

Everybody else with an (R) after their name is, however. Not exactly afraid of Trump, but his base. Trump's base is loyal, rapid and reflexively dismisses any negative news about their "Dear Leader."
Whichever conservative candidate winds up in favor with Trump's base, will have an advantage heading into the 2024 Republican primaries. 

The GOP isn't a monolith in any sense of the word at all. The hardliners (Hawley, Johnson, MT Greene, Ernst, Blackburn, etc.) are one group. The old hands (Cruz, Rubio, Paul, Lee, Thune, Scott, etc) are another. Then, you have the Republicans who voted to find Trump guilty (Cheney, Romney, Toomey, Collins, Murkowski, Cassidy, Kinzinger, etc...) 

How these three groups decide to work together or not over the next 18 months will be telling. Can they afford to be against the "hardliners?" Can they afford to be with the "hardliners?" 

Again, should one hardliner be designated by the Kingmaker (Trump) in the run-up to the GOP primaries for 2024, they'll have a helluva base of support and donors to work with. All the other challengers may cancel each other out, leaving a relatively easy stroll to the nomination. 

Q) IS TRUMP IN THE CLEAR?

A) No, he's not. Four, possibly five potentially significant legal landmines await Donald Trump.

    1. The Attorney General of State of New York - Letitia James (Taxes)

    2. Manhattan District Attorney - Cyrus Vance (Taxes)

    3. US Attorney for the Southern District of New York - Audrey Strauss (Taxes) 

    4. Fulton County District Attorney, (Georgia ) - Fani Willis (Election interference)

    5. Unites States Attorney General - Merrick Garland* (Tax Fraud)

*Garland still needs to be confirmed by the Senate. 

Any one of these could pose big trouble for Trump, if a few of these jurisdictions take things all the way, there's no telling what punishment may await the former POTUS. 

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*One guy who really, really impressed me during the impeachment process was Congressman Jaime Raskin (D) for Maryland's 8th Congressional District. His poise, his prose, and his professionalism were very appealing. 

*One (well, three) people who didn't impress me at all during the impeachment process were Trump's three attorneys. Ill-prepared, unprofessional, I mean what lawyer, defending the former President of the United States brings up this guy?

                                                     

The Jobs! It's always about the jobs...

 

 

LOTS of coverage on the Biden Administration's announcement to halt any further construction of the Keystone XL pipeline this week. It's been a contentious political issue for several years now. The Obama administration blocked its construction in November of 2015 and outside delays with regard to property rights slowed its progress, as well. 

The Trump administration supported the pipeline project in January of 2017 but progress was again stymied by the Nebraska Public Service Commission (who rejected TransCanada's proposed routing) in November of that same year. 

One year later, in November of 2018, District Court Judge Brian M. Morris blocked the permit granted by the Trump administration citing that a supplemental environmental review needed to be completed before construction could continue. 

In the days since the Biden inaugural on January 20th, I've seen many articles and social media memes passionately defending the project and taking Biden to task for the loss of thousands of jobs related to the construction of the pipeline. A secondary argument focuses on the premise that without this oil from Canada, the United States will become dependent on oil from the Middle East and the environmental concerns about those allegedly "unregulated oil tankers" dumping their waste into the ocean on the journey. 

The United States produces about 40% of its own domestic oil needs. We import the rest mostly from Latin America (20%), Canada (15%), Nigeria (5%), and "other" countries (3%). We do import the rest from several Middle Eastern countries. 

The funny thing is, the Keystone Pipeline isn't even fully built, so the project's suspension doesn't affect where we buy our oil from. 

There are other pipelines running between the US and Canada it seems that can increase their capacity without the Keystone project. And no, Canada won't be delivering that crude oil to us via "gas-guzzling tankers...dumping waste into the ocean."

Let's talk about jobs.

The project would absolutely create jobs. A couple thousand jobs for up to 24 months or so. Those are great paying direct jobs and certainly indirect labor and retail would also benefit significantly. 

For 24 months...

Unless the construction company was able to get it done in a year, in which case, well, it's a 12 month boon to the local economy and then not so much. 

What about after the completion of the project, how many jobs would remain? 

35

Thirty-five full time, probably very good jobs, and a couple dozen contractor part-time gigs as well. 

We shouldn't stop there, though. What about the jobs that are LOST due to the construction of the pipeline?

The oil is already getting shipped via truckers and railroad workers. As well as the truck stop workers/mechanics, gas station/convenience store employees, hotel/motel workers, restaurant staff, trucking logistic experts, etc. 

What about those jobs? Those are often good-paying, union jobs with benefits. 

Environmentally, the pipeline crosses one of the biggest aquifers in the country. If the pipeline breaks, drinking water may become scarce and shoot up in price. 

There are also concerns from local indigenous tribes about the routing of the pipeline. To be fair, there are some tribal communities that receive revenue from pipelines for their communities, so that has to be factored in as well. 

In the end, Canadian oil companies save money by creating a more efficient system to transport their crude oil to and through the United States. 

Imo, it's about profits. Mostly because I don't buy that the Canadian oil company is in any way, shape or form concerned THAT MUCH about employment in the various small towns along the way. And, I suppose, nor should they be. TransCanada's profit model doesn't include acts of goodwill as the main thrust of their construction projects. 

Will it destroy TransCanada? 

I don't know, that's above my paygrade. But, the stock seems mostly stable and they'll find a way to carry on. Maybe it's a waiting game for the next Republican President who may give it the green light and the project can be revived. 

Cause, Lord knows it can't wait to create those thirty-five full-time jobs...

Tonight's Presidential Address...Yes, there's a crisis, but not the one Trump will say there is...

Tonight on all the major television networks, President Trump will speak to the nation about the crisis on the border.

It promises to be a divisive speech.

Supporters of the POTUS will mostly think he's "truth-telling" and bemoan the fact that Democrats in Congress are playing hardball.

Foes of Mr. Trump will be uber focused on the truthfulness of his remarks, which may be less than 100% truthful. Also, they'll be looking forward to the Democratic response afterwards by Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer.

Here's my take on tonight's speech...

Trump is correct in saying there's a crisis at the border. Problem is, its not the one he claims it is. The claims he's made - and that been supported by Press Secretary Sarah Sanders and Vice President Mike Pence - that thousands of terrorists are pouting across the border with Mexico are false. The government's own stats don't support his claims.

Its not thousands of terrorists - it's six...

Most of the people here illegally are overstaying their visas, not scrambling across the border.

The real crisis is for the United States Border Patrol, who are understaffed and underfunded. They don't have the tools to do the job that's being asked of them. Too many illegals are coming across every week and the USBP is overwhelmed.

They need more agents, lawyers, judges, staff to manage the incoming people.

They need more facilities to properly house the people while they wait for the individual cases to be adjudicated. More money to properly provide healthcare and food

They do need more fencing and obstacles to keep people out. That may be a "wall" in some places. In other places, its the barrier with steel slits you've seen. In other cases, its drones or other structures/tactics to effectively stop the illegal entry issue.

Trump is stuck on the "wall" thing because he promised his base a bigass wall, the best ever wall during the campaign.

If Trump tones down his rhetoric this evening and puts forth a reasonable list of requests, and seems less interested in demonizing the Democrats - who do want border security too - then the Dems should work with him and make something happen to get the Federal Government open again and make meaningful improvements to the border situation.

It's beyond time for the "Best dealmaker ever" to make a deal.

Pre-Campaign Thoughts on Strategy for Democratic Party...

  With the mid-term elections behind us, it's just a matter of time before multiple democratic candidates declare their intentions on running for the nomination. It won't shock me if someone decides to contest President Trump's re-election bid from the right, but for this post, I want to just focus on the Democrats.

  Specifically, what electorate strategy should the Democratic Party embrace for 2020?

 Should they invest their time and money heavily into identity politics or focus on a far wider swath of voters, at the cost of those who fall into the first group?

Here's my premise: Trump won because he energized the turnout among white voters without college degrees. He was able to connect with a constituency that wouldn't / couldn't connect with Hillary Clinton and she damn sure didn't connect with them.

Trump wooed them and they swooned. This was a candidate they could relate to. It wasn't the stuffed shirt-ness of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. It was a guy who said shit other candidates wouldn't dream about saying. He insulted the other Republican candidates and swore sometimes for good measure.

His base LOVED it.

Keep in mind, for years - since the 1980's - the American voter has been told that you can't trust government. All they want to do is tax you back to the stone age, run your lives, stick their nose into your business and tell you what to do.  From Fox News to Right wing talk show hosts to Trump's yelps about the so-called "deep state," the message is simple to understand. You can't trust a politician - and I'm NOT a politician. I'm a businessman.

That's how Trump won...

If past is prologue, and in politics it often is, Trump's intention to run for re-election shouldn't be hard to figure out. He plans on it. Nor is the loyalty of his base hard to predict. They will be loyal, I suspect.

How loyal? Their boy has been under attack since he was sworn in. This Mueller this? Pfft., they're just out to get him. LOOK HOW LONG THIS INVESTIGATION HAS BEEN GOING ON!!! (Keep in mind, the Muller investigation has been going on for 566 days, whereas the Watergate investigation - which was far more straightforward than the current Russian hacking/collusion business has been, took longer from start to finish.)

The Democrats will be punished if they give short shrift to the middle of the country. If they focus on well established geographical liberal strongholds, they will hand the opposition a large hammer to use against them.

I can't think of a Republican candidate who those liberal locations would support over the eventual - regardless of who it is - democratic candidate.

The Dems likely already have the college graduate vote...

The Dems likely already have the women's vote...

The Dems likely already have the LGBT vote...

The Dems likely already have the youth vote...

The Dems likely already have the Asian vote...

The Dems likely already have the _________ (fill in the blank) vote...

Get the idea?

Trump has the male, non college graduate vote...

Trump has the evangelical vote...

Trump does well with the over 50 vote...

This sounds overly simplistic, but to me it's clear.

The Democratic Party should employ a 50 state strategy with an emphasis in the rust belt states, (PA, OH, MI, IN, WI, etc...)

Ticket wise, I've been saying for over a year that Joe Biden/Sherrod Brown would one that deserves serious consideration, PROVIDED both men want to run and would agree to such an arrangement.

Joe Biden brings over 45 years of political experience to the party. He was a long-term Senator from Delaware who served on a broad range of Committee assignment, including the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. His 8 years as President Barack Obama's Vice President allowed him to see the Federal Government operate at the highest levels. He is well respected uniquely qualified to be the next POTUS after Mr. Trump. Bridges - domestically and internationally - are in bad need of repair. In today's complex world, where trust hasn't been a strength of our current President, we need an experienced, knowledgeable hand steadying the ship. Biden has enough gravitas in Congress to reach across aisles and get away with it.

It is, in my opinion, not the time for an inexperienced younger person to rocket to the White House.

An effective partner to run with Biden would be Ohio's, Sherrod Brown. One of the most liberal Senators in the Country, Brown is known for his pro-labor, pro-working man support. A 45 year veteran of Ohio politics on both a State and Federal level, Brown has worked as Ohio State Representative from 1975 - 1982, the Ohio Secretary of State from 1983 - 1991, a member of the US House of Representative from 1993 - 2007, one of two Senators from Ohio from 2007 through today and recently won another 6 year team in the 2018 Mid-terms.

Two highly experienced, competent and electable veterans of the political scene could go a long way toward repairing the damage currently being inflicted by President Trump. The Democratic Party should strive to make it easy for independents and yes, white males without a college degree to consider voting for them in 2020. Aim right at the middle of the "Blue Wall" by courting voters in all 50 states but especially PA, IL, MI, WI, and MN. Likewise, great attention should be paid to swing states like OH, AZ, FL, NC and CO, to name a few.

A Biden / Brown ticket would have plenty of progressive positions and goals to satisfy most special interest groups across the country.

Will this ticket become a reality? The website predictit.org lists Kamala Harris as the best "bet" to win the 2020 Democratic nomination, followed closely by Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke and Joe Biden.

I'll discuss the pros/cons of the above list at a later date...

Welcome to the Dark Ages - Here we go again...

"The Sleep of Reason Brings Forth Monsters"
(Fransisco Goya - est. 1798)

  I have tried hard over the last few weeks to reach out to a handful of Trump supporters - some of whom reached out to me, first - and use reason, demonstrable facts, the clearest writing I can muster, etc.. and basically all its achieved is well, not too damn much.

  I wish not to live in the Dark Ages v2.0. I will resist this with everything I can think of. It's maddening and these people are willfully or woefully ignorant.

  The believers are strong, their faith in both God and Trump is robust and its a waste of time to bring a weapon of reason to a discussion about, when it comes down to it, faith in some other-worldly power.

  It's time to say goodbye to some bigots and religious imposters. You don't get to use your faith as a shield to hide your small-mindedness, your ignorance, your cruelty, and your bigotry.

  I'm NOT sorry that America doesn't look like it did when you were a child. Lily white, no dissenting opinions, everybody speaking the King's English, etc. Everyone in their proper place.

  Time passes. And the organism that is the United States of America is a living and breathing organism. There is room for everybody. Stop acting like the US is some sort of private club to which only you and yours have the password to.

  It wasn't all that long ago when there were a racism and hatred toward almost every ethnic group that's ever come here. What is this? Payback?

  The hypocrisy is too much. It's been taken to a new height and a new low all at the same time.

  The constant droning of Love for Christ on too many timelines which seems to alternate with messages about hatred toward people who don't look like you, don't worship like you do and don't come from around here is offensive to me.

  If you truly think the caravan is coming to murder you, rape the women and kidnap the kids, congrats - you've been duped. It doesn't phase any of you that as soon as election day passed, the President stopped talking about it.

  But it doesn't...

  To watch the current POTUS attack a set of Gold Star parents last general election or speak offensively toward a former POW, didn't generate so much as a peep out of your kind, which is rich, given how much you feign this fake patriotism when the moment suits you.

 When the moment suits you...

  To watch this POTUS do any number of things and get a free pass on compared to the incredibly rough ride you gave the black guy before Trump. (Rounds of golf, remarks about "grabbing her by the pussy," outright lies, etc...)

  A free pass...

  I saw not a single word from any of you taking Trump to task over his idiotic comments toward a 37 year Seal, Retired Admiral William McRaven in the interview with Fox's Chris Wallace.

  This POTUS lies to you on a daily basis and like a dog, you lap it up. Every. Single. Time.

  It's pathetic. You've confused love of country with love of party or skin color or a particular faith, etc...

  You. Are. Confused.

  Welcome to the Dark Ages, friends. Hang onto your ass...