So its the dog's fault?

"He climbed up there all by himself..."


Mitt Romney, Republican candidate for President, commenting on his storing of the family dog in a car top carrier on a twelve hour car trip during a family vacation back in 1983.

Watch him explain it to Fox's Chris Wallace...



I'm not going to suggest that this single matter would be a suitable one to judge Mitt Romney's potential as our next President, but it is a little nutty. I'm surprised his wife would let him get away with that. Usually, wives are pretty good at stopping us husbands before we do something patently stupid. This was extremely poor judgement from a person campaigning on the idea that his judgement would be better than any of his Republican rivals for the party nomination.

His explanation that A) The dog run up there on his own and B) he was unaware of the Massachusetts State law is weak. He would've been better to say "You know, I don't know what I was thinking. I shouldn't have done that and I'd never do it again. No excuses..."

I'd heard about this over the last few months but hadn't taken it seriously. I thought it was probably a joke or the kind of thing Snopes.com debunks. It sounded crazy.

He actually did this? Wow...

In a separate interview about the matter with WTAE-TV in Pittsburgh back in 2007, Romney complained that the animals rights group PETA has had issues with him in the past and that his dog "liked the fresh air."



Again, no accountability present here, is there?

We're now moving toward two issues here. The first is the judgement back in the 80's that it was ok to transport a dog that way. The second is his pattern of making excuses. Poor judgement and excuse-making aren't great attributes for a Presidential hopeful, are they?


Sources:

http://www.petside.com/article/mitt-romney-admits-family-dog-rode-roof-his-car-12-hour-trip?cmp=&

Fumbling the Nuclear Football (From Foreign Policy Magazine)

NOTE: Interesting article from Foreign Policy Magazine on the Obama Administration's painfully slow progress on its efforts to reduce the number of nuclear weapons in its arsenal...

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Fumbling the Nuclear Football

President Obama finally has a chance to make good on his pledge to rid the world of nuclear weapons. So why is he so afraid of making history?

By James Traub

In the first major foreign-policy speech of his tenure, President Barack Obama told a wildly cheering audience in Prague that the United States would commit itself to "a world without nuclear weapons" and then described in detail the "trajectory" required to get there. In the almost three years since that euphoric moment, the Obama White House has done what it so often does -- forthrightly acknowledge the complexity of its visionary goal, issue nuanced documents that compromise that goal even while reaffirming it, and accept half-measures, then quarter-measures, in the face of utterly unreasonable partisan opposition, surrendering more than planned to get less than expected. 

Obama now has the chance -- perhaps his last chance -- to finally make good on his Prague pledge. He has ordered a review of the U.S. strategic arsenal, to be delivered to him in the coming weeks. The president must decide how many nuclear weapons the United States really needs. Arms control advocates think that this time, finally, Obama will grasp the nettle and accept that the country needs far fewer deployed warheads than the 1,760 or so it now has. I hope he does. But the mottled history of the last three years should give any disarmament advocate pause.

According to the extraordinarily ambitious strategy Obama laid out in Prague, the United States would adopt a new policy to "reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy," pursue arms reduction in treaty negotiations with Russia, pass the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the so-called Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty to control the production of enriched uranium and plutonium, and strengthen the provisions of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Click here to continue reading...

Source: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/02/17/fumbling_the_nuclear_football?page=0,0

Llewellyn King: What Makes a President?

NOTE: Llewellyn King's column from February 16, 2012 on the notions that business people are superior choices to run the Country than politicians and that free markets and national interest don't always equate with one another. Good read...


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Come walk in the garden where the fallacies grow. Today, we’ll examine two varieties that are enjoying strong growth: the businessus presidentus and the marketus perfectus.  


The first fallacy (businessus presidentus) is that a business person, presumably Mitt Romney, is better equipped to run the government than a professional politician. This is an idea as old as anything in the garden. The supposition is that business people are organized, understand the economy and are less prone make decisions based on politics. It also suggests that as a species they are innovative, strategic thinkers and have an acquired understanding people.  


Well let's see: The purpose of business is business; in short, to make money. Romantics of the right like to credit it with virtues it doesn't have and doesn't want.  Business is about the numbers, and making the numbers. It’s not intrinsically wise, nor is it necessarily more inventive than government. 


It’s true that business innovates; but only when it’s forced to by competition and disruptive technologies. Coca-Cola was supposed to be the smartest company on the planet until it introduced New Coke and had to beat an ignominious retreat. Many old and new businesses simply can't change fast enough. We’ve seen the demise of Kodak, Polaroid and Borders and the emasculation of Western Union. The American car companies had to be rescued — especially General Motors which was a model of management structure, celebrated by Peter Drucker, until its management choked the life out of it.


If Romney has the skills to be a good president, he didn't learn them in the wheeler-dealer world of investment banking – Remember Lehman? – but rather in the statehouse in Boston. By and large, business success prepares a man or a woman for retirement and maybe volunteer work, not political office. 


Click here to continue reading...

Source: http://www.whchronicle.com/2012/02/what-makes-a-president-fallacies-about-business-markets/

Are the odds improving for a Second term for Obama? Yes, they are...

Are the odds of President Obama being re-elected improving?

Yes.

Before we jump in, its important to remember there are almost eight months left until the November election. Anything can happen. What happens in Greece will certainly effect world markets and with the US economy on the mend itself, its not a good time to have to absorb another shock to the system. If recent reports are wrong that the Iranian leaders are prepared to have meaningful talks about its nuclear program, most experts agree that something will happen in that region. Iran may try to block the Straits of Hormutz, which will likely lead to a spike in oil prices and/or outright military intervention. Plus, the notion of Israel taking matters into its own hands could also have large repercussions. The Supreme Court will be hearing the challenge to the Affordable Care Act in late Spring and the resulting decision will likely produce aftershocks. If the ACA is upheld, then the Administration can take a bit of a victory lap. If its all ruled unconstitutional, then the GOP gets the victory lap. If only the individual mandate is ruled unconstitutional, but the rest of the ACA is upheld, then no one and both sides will take a lap.

Obviously, the Republicans are likely to have a say in the matter of another four years for President Obama. While its concerning to many Conservatives that the party hasn't fallen en masse behind a single candidate, at some point they will. In terms of sheer financial strength and organization, the nomination is Mitt Romney's to lose. His resources dwarf all of the other candidates combined. While he would do the best against Obama in the general, Romney isn't nearly conservative enough to suit many on the far right plank of the party, thus the battle continues until further notice. Rick Santorum is making progress every day into Romney's lead, but his stance on social issues turns off a lot of mainstream people. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul seem to be doing a slow fade into irrelevance. Procedurally, its almost impossible for a new face to enter the fray at this point, like Marco Rubio or a Chris Christie, and both have said they're not interested in the Presidency at this time. With the long shot of a brokered convention leaving the door cracked open just slightly, a new face could ride into the fray on a white stallion to save the Republican day, but don't hold your breath.

The other caveat is Mr. Obama himself. Obama, during his time on the national stage, has committed any number of unforced errors, which the GOP will be watching for very closely. From the infamous picture of him at the Tom Harkin picnic for Democratic contenders back in 2007 where he failed to put his right hand over his heart during the playing of the national anthem, to insulting the Harvard police force during a live press conference which lead to the "beer summit," this President has often been his own worst enemy. A big part of successful messaging is controlling the news cycles and missteps like those two must be avoided.

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The economy is expected to be THE issue in the campaign. Pocketbook issues usually rule the day in national elections and while people don't like the deficit, don't like the size and scope of our Federal Government, etc., they'll tend to vote for issues closer to home.  The people who feel strongly on issues like that already have their minds made up on who to vote for in 2012. Deficit hawks, Constitutionalists, Pro-lifers, anti-gay rights, pro-gun, etc. aren't likely voting for Obama no matter what happens. Period. Similiarly, the anti-war, black, jewish and latino voting blocks, the pro-gay rights, pro-choice, gun control, etc, crowds will vote for Obama no matter what. In both cases, even if they aren't totally pleased with how "their guy" stands on these issues, their votes are secured. What are they going to do? Vote for the other guy? Nope.

For most people, the economy is measured by how their situation is next September or so. Do I have a job? Can I pay my bills? Can I put gas in my car? Is my family ok? If the answers are yes...then traditionally most undecided voters award the incumbent with a second term. If they answer no, then they often chose to go a new direction.

Unemployment is heading in a good direction. The latest monthly figures show the unemployment rate falling to 8.3%, the lowest figure in the last two years...

(Click on the chart for a larger image...)

This morning, Bloomberg reports that monthly unemployment claims to the lowest mark in the last four years, which most economists interpret as a sign of a healing US labor market. “It’s clearly reflecting a rapidly improving labor market, signaling further declines in the jobless rate,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “It’s good news for consumers, meaning stronger income growth and likely rising confidence that will support spending.”  Wholesale prices and housing starts also reported a better than expected report. Its worth noting that some of these employment numbers are showing improvement due to a smaller labor pool of people actually looking for work. As 2012 unfolds, its expected many of these unemployed people who gave up looking for work will take another run at finding a job, therefor enlarging the labor pool, which may stall or even see the overall unemployment rate backslide at times. In other words, the slope of job growth won't be purely upwards, it will more likely be a sawtooth type pattern over time. 

We also see an uptick in business confidence: 

But work needs to be done on consumer confidence:

Meanwhile, the stock market is doing very well as people's retirement plans slowly recoup some of their lost earnings: 

Americans don't care too much for the nitty gritty on unemployment statistics. If the overall rate keeps dropping, and they see the stock market doing well, I say those are two big factors that average voter can feel pretty good about. I think most people understand that the economy and unemployment can't be fixed overnight (or in 3-4 years) and will reward Obama for this progress. 

Gas Prices will also be a big factor as it effects almost everyone of voting age. Let's see how historically gas prices today compare with the last five years worth of data: 

Things aren't expected to be very pretty around Memorial Day this year either. Combine the effect of Iran restricting its oil supply to the world supply as a response to increased sanctions by the US and other countries, plus the increased demand nationally due to the improving economy, don't be shocked if we see prices per gallon in excess of $4.00. 

An ABC News report on the gasoline price situation: 

What President Obama probably hopes for is that if there is a peak in gas prices around May 30, that it then is in a clear state of decline by election day in the Fall. I expect to hear the Right push the argument if Obama had done more to reduce our dependence on foreign oil, we wouldn't be in this position. Which is a bit of a dishonest argument. New wells drilled in early '08 wouldn't necessarily be providing product to the consumer market, so who knows? Bottom line, I think this is a weak spot for Obama but probably not a fatal one. He'll likely be able to put much of the blame on the Iranians if they shut off their supply or close the Strait of Homutz. That will be the main story, over-shadowing even domestic gas prices. 

To say Barack Obama is a polarizing figure in US politics is an understatement. Accused of various crimes and misdemeanors including being un-American, a Socialist, a Marxist, a Muslim, anti-life, anti-business, anti-jew, anti-everything that is good and American. There is a percentage of Conservatives who have a visceral hate of this man. They will not vote for him under any circumstance. They are likely offset by those who are so pro-Obama they will vote for him no matter what. Which brings us to the all important undecided middle ground. How they vote will decide the 2012 presidential election. 

After his early popularity numbers cratered, we've seen a steady increase in job approval numbers since last Summer. According to the Gallup job approval tracking, Obama's has seen his performance rise from a low of 39% in August to a high of 49% as of February 8th. If the unemployment rate continues to drop, look for his numbers to stay pretty flat around the 50% approval mark. 

Looking at the Real Clear Politics comparison of Obama vs. the four remaining Republican candidates, we see the following: (Real Clear Politics combines a variety of national polls to reflect the data on a broader level...)

Obama vs. Romney: Obama + 5.9

Obama vs. Santorum: Obama +8.0

Obama vs. Gingrich: Obama +13.2

Obama vs. Paul: Obama +9.6

Remember this is a snapshot, not a prediction of future results. However, none of the Republican candidates are in a position of strength at this time. Which has to be a concern to those who wish to see Obama replaced next Fall. 

Additionally, a Fox News Swing State poll released late yesterday indicates support for President Obama is improving, while support for the GOP alternatives are not, in most cases. The states looked at include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, New mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin...

See the very interesting and surprising results here... Fox News Poll

As I wrote earlier today, the New York Times Nate Silver, suggests that President Obama will defeat any of the four current GOP candidates...

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There are 264 days until Election Day. The Republicans will choose a candidate at some point and rally behind him. There will be two debates between President Obama and the GOP candidate, which could help/hurt either candidate. As mentioned earlier, outside events could influence the election. All of that aside, based on what we know today, it looks like President Obama has a very serious chance to be re-elected. Which is surprising to me given the amount vitriol and criticism associated with this President. There have been times when the passion from the far Right has seemed quite loud to say the least. However, as we move towards the main section of the campaign, it appears that both the volume and the influence of the louder voices on the far right are not as effective as they seemed for the mid term elections in 2010. Obama is seemingly beginning to peak at just about the right time. 

Sources:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-16/jobless-claims-in-u-s-fall-to-four-year-low-correct-.html

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2012/01/forecast-2012-worst-year-for-gas-prices/

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/gallup-daily-obama-job-approval.aspx

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

http://www.foxnews.com/interactive/politics/2012/02/15/fox-news-swing-state-poll-is-landscape-shifting/

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/19/magazine/nate-silver-obama-reelection-chances.html?_r=2&hp

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/179.htm

Why Obama Will Embrace the 99 Percent - NYTimes.com

Why Obama Will Embrace the 99 Percent - NYTimes.com:


Nate Silver updates his analysis on President Obama's re-election chances. In short, Obama's chances are improving and against front-runner (?) Mitt Romney, the President has a 60% chance of being awarded another term in office.