GOP Power Rankings 10/23/11...

GOP Power Rankings 10/23/2011...


As we head into late October, we can see the one year mark from the general election not far away. As the debates continue, individual State primaries begin in less than three months. The GOP field hasn't seen anyone leave the campaign trail just yet. As we approach the primaries, we'll see most donations targeted to the candidates that can make a serious case to defeat President Obama next year. Fundraising is key, and a few candidates are in serious trouble on this front. Stars have risen and fallen over the last few months and through it all, Mitt Romney just keeps shining. Currently the #1 candidate to represent the Republican Party to push Obama to the unemployment line, Mr. Romney has money, momentum and most importantly, apparently no equals in the race for the nomination.

NEXT DEBATE: November 9th, 2011 on CNBC...

This week's rankings:

1) Mitt Romney-Yes, Perry and Santorum knocked him around in the last debate, but to what end? Absorbing mostly body blows, Romney leads the pack in Gallups Ballot Support rankings and recognition, sits 2nd in positive intensity to only Herman Cain. Compared to Rick Perry who sits sixth in the positive intensity rankings. Despite the fuss that Bachmann, Perry and now Mr. Cain have generated enough long lasting heat to make things uncomfortable for Romney. Financially, Romney had the second highest donations, $14 Million, which was just under Perry's take of 17 Million. Romney is in good shape going forward...

2) Herman Cain-Mr. Cain got a rough ride at the start of the last GOP debate but was able to hang on long enough to allow the Romney/Perry sideshow take over. Cain has made nice progress over the last several week in both polls and fundraising. Speaking of fundraising, Cain made a personal loan of $175K to his own campaign. Having raised only 2.8M in the last quarter, this is an area where his recent wave of popularity will need to translate to money. While Romney and Perry both brought in at least 14 million, less than 3 million won't cut it.

3) Rick Perry-Last quarter's biggest fundraising champion, Perry has shown an ability to quickly raise some cash, albeit most of it from his home state of Texas. Debates are clearly not his strong suit and his roughing up of Romney seems to have turned off as many as it impressed. Despite his fanfare, Perry's national numbers have slid backwards since he officially joined the campaign, which is a very bad sign. Lots of problems facing Perry right now.

4) Newt Gingrich-Off a slightly stronger debate last week, somehow the former Speaker of the House is still hanging around. Left for dead over the Summer, Mr. Gingrich has a long way to go to entering the upper tier ranks of GOP contenders. Financially, he hasn't reported a total for the third quarter. In the prior quarter, Gingrich reported fundraising of just over $2M dollars. Third in Gallups positive intensity rankings, Gingrich hasn't gone away yet. Developing a taste for surly exchanges with debate moderators, Gingrich may have turned the ship around, but I see him a million miles away from the top three tier.

5) Rick Santorum-Santorum has been scoring points of late with the far Right of the Right and has certainly had his share of favorable moments in the last few debates. While playing to the base may feel good, its highly unlikely Santorum is attracting new voters to his team, as witnessed in the 3rd quarter fundraising number, which were dismal. His fundraising take for the quarter? Less than one million dollars. That will need to be improved upon and quickly for him to survive. His comments a few days ago that he wants the defund all Federal dollars that help pay for contraception won't woo many women to his side. His recent surge might...might...put him on a few candidates short list for VP if they need votes from the far right.

6) Ron Paul-Mr. Paul has no shot. Once he openly suggested that the United States stop sending foreign aid to Israel, any sliver of hope he was holding on to wafted away. I give him credit, he has balls, his stances are compelling to me and his frankness is refreshing. Paul is capable at raising money, with over 8M in 3rd qtr. reporting. He's likely to be around for several months. It will be interesting to see if he can stay relevant in the GOP race for the White House nomination.

7) Michelle Bachmann-Iowa seems so long ago, doesn't it? With her start crashing back to earth, there are problems everywhere. Several of her staff in New Hampshire have quit on her campaign, he fundraising for Q3 came in at just over 4M, but her overall organisation is now over 500K in debt. On top of all that, she has the highest "Strongly Unfavorable" of all the candidates vying for the GOP nomination. Yikes...

8) John Huntsman-Focusing mostly on New Hampshire, Huntsman's has nothing working for at the moment. Last in most of the polls, his campaign is over 800K in debt and that includes a personal loan to his campaign of about 2.5M. The end is fast approaching for Mr. Huntsman.






Overall Rankings: (The lower the score, the better...)
(After 8 rankings...)

1. Romney - 9
2. Perry - 31
3. Bachmann - 36
4. Cain - 38
5. Santorum - 55
6. Paul - 59 
7. Huntsman - 64
8. Gingrich - 73

(NOTE: Rankings are compiled by simply adding the rankings each week to a running total of same...)


Sources:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/third-quarter-gop-fundraising-totals/2011/10/15/gIQA9gXemL_story.html

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2011/10/huntsman-money-troubles/1