Friday, October 19, 2012
FYI: Election Blogs and Prediction...
To those who have asked when will Reasonable Conversation will issue a prediction on the upcoming election, an update.
Sunday October 28th - I'll post my vote and an explanation on how I arrived at this decision.
Sunday November 4 - I'll post my prediction and my rationale behind it.
Its too early for either. We still have one debate to go, there's any number of story lines that could effect the outcome, plus there's an alleged "bombshell" that will be released next Monday before the final debate that could, I suppose, be a factor. I'll be watching the various State polls, especially in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Nevada closely over the next 18 days as well as the aggregate websites like Nate Silver's 528 blog.
Right now, I see the national polls describing a virtual toss-up, with various state polls showing some volatility. In my opinion, it's better to be in Barack Obama's shoes than Mitt Romney's, but not by very much...