President Trump was elected President of the United States Two Novembers ago, and what a ride it's been since then.
Love him or hate him, most people have strong feelings about our 45th President. Some think he's the guy we've been waiting for to turn Washington upside down, not be beholden to either party and "empty the swamp" as he does things that are common sense solutions for problems that others haven't been able to solve.
Others think he's the Devil in disguise. A fast-talking bullshit artist who knew just what tone to take and how to talk to the voters (well, a certain slice of the voters) to build a big enough constituency to win the presidency over one of the most dreadful presidential candidates this county has seen in a long while, Hillary Clinton.
The two-year mark is a good time to take stock and apply fair measurement to the man who has utterly changed how Presidents behave while in office.
A week or so ago, a Facebook friend posted the following picture, that he captioned with the following. "Just facts, not rhetoric."
Thirteen claims of examples of accomplishments Mr. Trump has achieved in his first two years in office. Let's look at each objectively and see if the claim is Fact or Fiction or something in between the two.
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1) GDP Growth at 4.2%: It's true the GDP Rate in the United States was, in fact, 4.2% in the 2nd quarter. Just 2.2% the quarter prior, GDP almost doubled. Since then, it has fallen back to 3.5%. As a comparison, the GDP rate was 4.2% or higher three times during the Obama Administration. Mr. Trump made some bold claims during his campaign, including "a GDP annual growth rate of 4%. That did not happen in 2017. With a growth rate YTD for 2018 of 2.75, it'll require a tremendous, "never seen in recent times" performance in our 4th quarter to do it in 2018. There is no basis on which to build a case that Trump deserves as much or let alone more credit than his predecessor does. Misleading at best.
2) Unemployment Rate at 3.7%: It's true that the Country's unemployment rate is 3.7%, which is very, very good. However, perspective is important. We can go back and look at the slope of the unemployment rate in 2013 and see a very strong, downward sloping month to month trend of falling unemployment data. The "eyeball test" suggests that Mr. Trump is continuing the rate of improvement that Mr. Obama had before him. It's important to also remember that When Obama took office in early 2009, the unemployment rate was already bad and climbing to above 10%.
The data clearly shows that Mr. Obama had eight years of improvement compared to Mr. Trump's almost two years of continued improvement while in office. It's dishonest to suggest that Mr. Trump was the one who fixed the unemployment issue in the Country. He has successfully continued the long trend of improvement that Mr. Obama began eight years ago...
3) Record low Black unemployment: It's true that Black unemployment reached an all-time low back in June when it dipped below 7%. That's a good thing, of course. However, similar to overall unemployment, it's important to see the bigger picture.
Looking closely at the image, you can first, the overall measurements of black unemployment dating back to the George W. Bush administration. In the middle of the image, you can see where the Obama presidency began as well as when the Trump presidency began. Like overall unemployment, Mr. Trump has continued the improvement began earlier - again much earlier - by Mr. Obama.
4) Record low Hispanic unemployment: Once more, we see a record low for unemployment related to a particular group. The 4.7% rate of Hispanic unemployment reported in October 2018 is the lowest on record. Yes, like the two previous kinds of unemployment we've reviewed, this too happened on President Trump's watch. That's a fact. And, also like the two previous areas we've looked at, Hispanic unemployment has been dropping for quite a while, traceable back to the tail-end of the GW Bush presidency. The success in October began back in 2010...the data shows steady growth over multiple years:
Trump deserves approval for the continuance of the previous job growth policies across overall, Black and Hispanic unemployment sectors. I find it a stretch and highly misleading to suggest that Trump is responsible for the current healthy unemployment rates we enjoy today in the United States. While the Facebook post doesn't allege that, it's a common meme that Mr. Trump fixed something Mr. Obama hadn't. Fact, but highly rhetorical in nature to the point of being misleading.
5) ISIS decimated: On April 12, 2018, President Trump tweeted the following, "...the United States, under my Administration, has done a great job of ridding the region of ISIS. Where is our “Thank you America?” It is fact that during the Trump presidency, the United States, with the aid of other countries, inflicted significant losses upon ISIS. Per Vox, "There’s real truth here. The amount of territory controlled by ISIS declined by 60 percent between January and October 2017, according to a count by IHS Markit, a strategic intelligence firm. The group lost control over both Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, and Raqqa, which served as the de facto capital of ISIS’s so-called caliphate; it now no longer controls a major populated city in either country."
Vox continues, however, "Yet Trump’s comment implies that nearly all of the ISIS-held territory was liberated in the past year. This isn’t true. In fact, it’s not clear that Trump deserves much credit for these developments — if any. His counter-ISIS strategy has, for the most part, been a continuation of the one the Obama administration began back in 2014, which had already been steadily chipping away at the group’s territory."
“Whatever successes the Trump administration is claiming against ISIS are actually a product of the Obama administration’s approach,” says Jennifer Cafarella, the senior intelligence planner at the Institute for the Study of War."
Decimated is a powerful sounding word which means destroyed. In two columns from August of 2018, citing two reports - one from the United Nations and the other from Mr. Trump's own Defense Department - the facts indicate that ISIS is far from decimated and is and will remain a highly dangerous threat not only in the Middle East but around the world.
According to the Defense Department's report, upwards of thirty thousand ISIS back fighters were still active in Iraq and Syria. The United Nations report from June 2018, reports the same findings in terms of ISIS manpower in the two countries.
Bottom line: ISIS has lost most of the ground it had gained but still possesses a highly dangerous and capable military force of approximately 30,000 troops. With numbers that high, given the volatility of the are they are trying to remain a force in, they do not appear to be "decimated." Not a fact...
6) North Korea denuclearizing: I can find no source that alleges that North Korea has begun to denuclearize its weapon program. North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un is on record as saying he'wants to be rid of his nuclear weapons program by the end of President Trump's first term, but nothing concrete has apparently happened as of this date. With no evidence yet - this can't be viewed as a fact. Intentions do not equal results. In time, we'll know more...
7) Improved trade deals: Using the "right-of-center" Forbes Magazine, they break down President Trumps trade deals into three sections. South Korea, China, and the European Union.
South Korea - A weak arrangement that, in the end, may not even be approved by the South Korean government...
China - Lots of talk and back-slapping, but "There are not even any talks currently underway." Whatever the future may hold, the deal-making to date seems to have been a failure, despite initial self-congratulation."
European Union - "Little more than an agreement to talk about talking."
Bottom line: How they are "improved" isn't known yet... so, hardly a fact...
8) American Hostages released: It is a factual statement that "hostages have been released during the Trump presidency." Some higher profile than others, almost 20 Americans were either kidnapped outright or being detained for various reasons and then were released since Trump took office. In the last month, American US Pastor Andrew Brunson was released by Turkey after negotiations with American officials...Yes, a Fact...
9) Improved immigration security: Let's look at the two main components of Trump's immigration policy. The building of a wall and any policy changes he's implemented since taking office.
One of the major pieces of Trump's Presidential campaign, "Build that wall!" became and remains a rallying cry at his rallies across the country. Despite claims by Mr. Trump that "We've started building the wall" (April 3rd, 2018, remarks with Baltic leaders), construction on the "wall" has not begun.
What has happened is the repair and construction of older pieces of the already existing wall and obstructive impediments in Calexico, that were planned as far back as 2009, well before Mr. Trump took office. Congress has appropriated $1.57 million dollars for border security, but that is expressly forbidden to be used for the building of a "new wall."
Looking at policy changes, the President has been more productive. From the controversial "Travel ban" that been rejected by at least one court, resulting in revised and softer language in the second attempt, to an increase in border arrests, which then led to the separating of children from their illegal immigrant parents at the border - which then led to horrific stories of children being detained in less than desirable conditions, etc. All the while numerous studies, including this one from March of this year, see the violent crime rate from illegal immigrants as "less than" the level Mr. Trump insinuates it is.
Bottom line: Trump is being deceptive at best when it comes to the issue of the wall and policy-wise, while he's implemented some changes that seem less than directly related to any improvements in this area. It's False that Trump has improved immigration security...
10) Cutting aid to hostile nations: Trump has adopted an "America First" approach and put the word out on the international stage that if your country is not acting as a "friend" would toward the United States, any foreign aid you've been getting, may be in jeopardy of getting cut off. Trump has reduced aid to a handful of countries with a mixed reception around the world. The perception seems to be that America is no longer spreading its wealth around with the same virtuous motivations it used to, which over time, will have consequences... That said, it is a fact Trump has cut aid to some nations...
11) Fewer people on food stamps: On August 2nd, 2018, at a campaign rally in Wilkes-Barre, PA, Mr. Trump said, "More than 3.5 million Americans have been lifted off food stamps—something that you haven’t seen in decades.” It is Fact that a lot of people have left the food stamp program since Trump came in office. However, like the unemployment claims, he's continued a trend that goes back to the Obama Administration. As this chart shows, the decline in the number of people on food stamps or SNAP Benefits began early in 2013.
Bottom line: Fact, but highly rhetorical in nature to the point of being misleading.
12) Jobs being created: Are "jobs being created?" Absolutely, they are. However, like unemployment rates and food stamps, it's a bit misleading to give too much credit. Trump's numbers, by any measure - to be fair - have been very solid. But they are consistent with the trajectory that began back in the Obama Administration. Trump's job growth is running behind Obama's so far and his campaign pledge "the best jobs President God ever created" seems unrealistic. If he continues his current pace, he'll surpass both Obama and President Reagan, but fall well short of the job growth Bill Clinton achieved in his time in office. Bottom line: Fact, but highly rhetorical in nature to the point of being misleading.
13) Manufacturing resurgence: There seems to be little dispute that U.S. Manufacturing has prospered under the Trump Administration. This chart sums it up very nicely:
There is ample evidence of robust performance indicators within the manufacturing sector. From Zachs .com, "U.S. manufacturing sector has been witnessing resurgence under the Trump administration since last year, shrugging off its lengthy spell of weak productivity and sluggish growth. Under Trump’s presidency, the manufacturing sector is flying high as manufacturers have increased capital spending and hiring driven by massive tax overhaul, deregulatory measures, strong domestic economy, and robust business sentiment."
Bottom Line: Fact
14) Reduced regulation: Another popular component of Trump's campaign was a pledge to gut regulations. While its one thing to unwind an Executive Order from a prior President, writing new ones isn't exactly popular these days. Writing and passing new ones into law, even with a full control of both houses of Congress - is also hard and time-consuming. An area where progress has been made, of a sort, is in the internal enforcement of the standing regulations. The biggest targets have been Energy and Environmental regulations, but almost no department hasn't been affected by the movement. There is great concern about the long-term effects of these policy decisions and look for several policy and tone reversals to be a popular talking point of any Democratic campaign for those seeking Mr. Trump's job in 2020. Bottom line: Fact
Summary: The poster was presented as "Just facts, not rhetoric." Given fair consideration, I've tried to fairly assess each of these 14 claims on the facts. Utilizing upwards of 16 different sources, I've avoided over-representing a single media viewpoint. Where I've been able to call a claim a fact, I have. If a claim has been technically true but it's either misleading or deceptive in how the claim is being viewed, I've attached a caveat to it. In the cases where I could find no evidence to support it, I've judged it to be False. Over time, some of these claims may move into a different judgment.
The post itself is certainly not "just facts." I hope readers, as well as the orginal poster, will understand why it's not a 100% factual poster and that it's important to apply critical thinking skills to any poster like this that we find on social media. Take the time to fact check content like this. There's no downside to taking a few minutes to verify something. Worst case might be you understand the issue a little more deeply, that's all. Best case, you may discover that a source you previously trusted has posted misleading content and be wary of anything like that you see in the future. Alternately, you may discover that something you thought to be false was, in fact, true.
The more informed we are, the better. Period!
Sources:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-chance-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/
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