In about a year, we'll go to the polls and vote for the next President of the United States of America. Our current President, Barack Obama, is by many predictions facing no better than a 50/50 shot to serve another four years. Ask some Conservatives and they'll claim "Obama has no chance" to get re-elected. Citing the sluggish economy, unemployment still over 9%, and tepid support for the President's signature piece of legislation, healthcare's Affordable Care Act, it all adds up to an uphill climb for Mr. Obama. That is real, not imagined. Throw in Obama's approval ratings and you can easily make the case that enough Independents plus virtually ALL Conservatives will send a new person to Washington D. C. to serve as the Commander in Chief next November.
The "Change you can hope for" mantra is mostly retired these days. The fantasy that a relative new face on the national political scene could stroll into our Capital on the mojo from a stirring speech in Boston a few years prior, a sizzlingly efficient campaign for President, and a personal story like none other and fundamentally change how politics and/or the Government works has proven to be just that. A fantasy. Obama loses more than he wins. An obstructionist Congress, an inability to construct an attractive message for the US public on his goals and programs, etc. all add up to a less than stellar first four years and abounding doubt and uncertainty from all sides.
Progressives feel dissatisfied that Obama hasn't fought harder for their causes, while Conservatives feel that Obama is at the very least unqualified and ineffective and quite possibly a Socialist leaning nightmare trying to drag the USA into the European Union. Even with a super majority as he entered office back in 2008, Obama did not have the sway within his own party (probably due to his lack of experience and relationships within his party) to take full advantage. At no time more evident than during the health reform battle, the new President was not only battling Republicans every step of the way, but also Congressional Democrats from Louisiana to Nebraska who wanted/needed special deals to be able to support Obama's Health care reform. The whole process was clumsy and sucked most of the political capital he entered office with. Obama is not what you call popular. Polls suggest that most Americans think Obama is a good person, but not quite heading us in the right direction.
Eight Republicans are each making the case that they should represent the Grand Old Party next year to try and unseat President Obama. These are mostly candidates from the world of Politics. From a sitting Governor (Perry) to former Governors (Romney) to current Congressmen/women (Paul/Bachmann) to former Congressmen (Gingrich/Santorum) and a diplomat (Huntsman). The other candidate Herman Cain, former CEO of Godfathers Pizza, who has worked mostly in the private sector but has a long history of involvement with Government and politicians.
Lots of experience in that field. Which should, you'd think, play to the appetite of the electorate. "Sure, we liked Obama, but he just didn't know how to get things done..." This group of eight Conservatives know how Washington works and should provide Independents with an appealing option for those wanting change. Whoever emerges from this group should absolutely crush Obama in the next election, sending him back to Chicago, Hawaii or wherever the hell he comes from.
Easy, eh?
There's just one problem.
None of these eight folks seem to have that much appeal, at least so far, to the general public. In recent polls, the candidate most likely to represent Republicans, Mitt Romney is just about even with President Obama in head to head comparisons. No one else of that group of eight does as well as Romney does when compared to Obama. Which means whatever message that's being received from the GOP hopefuls isn't connecting with Independents. Maybe it will in time, most people aren't really paying attention yet, but it hasn't yet.
Romney should be the guy who takes down Obama. This, his second kick at the presidential can, seems to be progressing rather nicely and without any major problems. He's got truckloads of money, more endorsements than any other Republican has so far, and well, dammit-he looks Presidential, doesn't he? The debates seem to be no problem for the former Massachusetts Governor and even the presumed Achilles heel of his "RomneyCare" which served as a blueprint for Obamacare, hasn't seemed to be a poison pill. The biggest concern for Mitt Romney is that apparently many Conservatives don't find him Conservative enough. He's evolved a few positions over the years and hard liners dont' known if they can trust him. That's more of an issue during the primary season than it will be during the General Election. Is Romney as Conservative as Rick Santorum or Michelle Bachmann? No, but what will Conservatives do if Romney is what the Party puts up against Obama? Vote for the other guy? No way. They'll vote for Romney just to get Obama out of office and worry about the rest later.
"Anybody but Obama" is more than just a bumper sticker, trust me.
In the early days of this campaign, Michelle Bachmann stormed through Iowa and won the straw poll there as well. A Congresswoman from Minnesota, she is known for saying rather odd things at times and isn't well known outside of her State and hard core Conservative circles. Ridin' high she was, but that very same day Bachmann won in Iowa, another Conservative, a Governor from Texas named Rick Perry announced his candidacy for President. Whooosh, went Bachmann's energy. She's never been the same since. Gov. Perry, a late entry to the field, has not exactly delivered what he was expected to. With consistently poor, at times excruciatingly bad, performances in the debates so far, Perry numbers have dive-bombed as Bachmann did before him. Combine the debate debacles with some questionable policy stances, Mr. Perry doesn't seem to be nearly as attractive now that we know him than when we didn't.
Ron Paul, a long time Texas Congressman with strong Libertarian leanings has done so far, what everyone expected him to do. Less Government, smaller Military, less Foreign Aid (even to Israel), a more diplomatic approach to Iran, etc. Mr. Paul seems the most genuine of the pack. He has been saying the same message for a long, long time. He doesn't shape it to boost his poll numbers, which is honorable. His politics don't have a mainstream appeal within the Republican party, let alone across all Independents.
Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House during the '90's, has had an up and down campaign. Early on, Gingrich made some inartful remarks towards Paul Ryan's budget plan which he then blamed on the media. Then there was a dustup about his credit account at Tiffany's. Then changes in his campaign staff produced rumors that he was about to drop out. Gingrich assumed a low profile and has enjoyed a resurgence of sorts over the last few weeks. Still a long shot, the former Speaker seems to have found a comfort zone over the last several debates, attacking alternately both President Obama and the Media, which are two very easy to swallow messages in Republican circles these days. Its very questionable this will lead to meaningful national approval among independents and Gingrich seems to represent the old guard to the modern voter.
Herman Cain, the businessman, produced a fresh, bold economic plan called 9-9-9. Criticized by many for being too hard on the poor, that idea has failed to give him the national traction he hoped for. The allegations of sexual harassment by several different women from Cain's professional past hasn't hurt him too badly in the court of public opinion...yet. Voters looking for a more experienced person to replace Obama probably don't find Cain's never holding elected office disconcerting. The Cain train may be charming and refreshing to some, but doesn't seem to have captured the imagination of the party, let alone the nation.
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum has aggressively planted his flag to the right of just about everyone else in this group, but doesn't seem to be getting rewarded for his effort. Performing terribly in the polls, the Santorum campaign is running out of money and time.
Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman is running a very weird campaign. Despite being in New Hampshire with a promise to win that state's primary, Huntsman has maintained an oddly low profile in the State. For example, the Huntsman campaign has zero television advertising running in New Hampshire. For a nationally unknown candidate such as he, you'd expect a bigger media push, but there isn't one.
So, if its accepted that Romney will most likely be the guy to go up against President Obama, it will be a romp, right? Nope...
By having what I consider a weak GOP field, Romney isn't being pushed very hard at all. While he's easy to take, he's representative of the big corporate world, which is hardly a popular image these days. I'm not sure Romney excites anyone, either. Barack Obama, even after these lack-luster four years, still knows how to give a speech and raise money. Mitt Romney seems really good at not doing anything dumb to hurt his chances at becoming President next November. Conversely, President Obama is now very accustomed to being under attack, from all sides.
By lacking a more formidable opponent, Romney should slide right through to the nomination. Which sets up a Republican candidate who's barely had to sweat to secure his party's nod, against a sitting President, who has been under attack since day one. Can Romney turn it on when he needs to? Can he match Obama's debating skills, which are assured to be far more aggressive than anything the other Conservatives threw at Romney during the primaries?
I think if Tim Pawlenty had stayed around longer than he did, if Chris Christie, Sarah Palin, Mitch Daniels, etc. had participated in the primary fray with Romney overcoming all of them to secure the Republican Nomination, Obama would likely be toast. But they didn't.
If the economy comes back another 1.5% in the next 8 months, if unemployment falls under 8%, etc...Obama will have plenty of weapons in his arsenal to use against a mostly untried opponent in Mitt Romney. It will be anything but a slam dunk. As Obama cites his various victories, Republican obstructionism, etc. Romney will no longer get the kid glove treatment. It should be quite the show
Sources:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWynt87PaJ0
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/07/opinion/sunday/what-happened-to-obamas-passion.html?pagewanted=all
http://www.valleypatriot.com/VP0611ormsby.htm
http://www.mittromney.com/s/welcome
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/82621-obama-healthcare-plan-nixes-ben-nelsons-cornhusker-kickback-deal
http://www.michelebachmann.com/
http://www.rickperry.org/join-today/
http://www.ronpaul2012.com/
http://www.newt.org/
http://www.hermancain.com/
https://www.ricksantorum.com/
http://www.jon2012.com/welcome/home.html
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