The second Republican debate of 2011 will be held in Manchester, New Hampshire this evening. CNN Has the broadcast, which starts at 8:00pm and runs for two hours. Participating will be Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain and Michelle Bachmann.
Some thoughts on each participant:
Romney-Home field advantage and considered by most to have the best organisation up and running. He has loads of money, the experience of testing the waters back in '08 and has done well in recent polling. I think he's the guy that the others will try and hit pretty hard. Everyone will hit Obama, but that's low hanging fruit to be sure. I'll be shocked if someone doesn't make a reference to Romneycare and my vote is on Tim Pawlenty to be the first.
Pawlenty-Considered by many as the second most legitimate candidate, T-Paw should be one of the more aggressive speakers on the stage. He has to get out from the shadow Romney has cast and there's no better way than to smack Romney as hard as he can. Pawlenty may have to defend his economic plan which predicts stunning levels of growth. That topic may be Romney's counter punch, in fact.
Gingrich-Days after virtually all of his election team bailed, he shares a stage in a wounded condition. His fundraising has slowed down since he criticized the Ryan Plan for Medicare and unless he has a strong showing, it could be over for the former Speaker of the House. Don't under estimate Gingrich, he is probably the smartest person on stage tonight. Combine his current bad situation and his propensity for making undisciplined statements, there's no telling what he might say. He has to stand out, in a good way, for his campaign to survive.
Paul-Another candidate who is known for controversial statements. In South Carolina's first debate, he supported legalizing all drugs. (At least in getting the Federal Government out of the drug policing business, that is...) Paul isn't considered a serious candidate, so I'd be shocked if any of the previously mentioned men make a target out of him. If he's not a real threat, why waste the bullets?
Santorum-I heard a great line about Santorum over the weekend. He's actually running for Vice President. Low name recognition, hasn't held office in a long time, got thumped in PA the last time he ran for anything. he may try and stand out and lob some bombs or perhaps let others do the heavy lifting tonight and simply try to emerge as unscathed as possible.
Cain-Cain won the SC debate a few weeks ago but it was a watered down field. Tonight, he's the "A Team" to deal with. I see him as the charming outsider who will also try to limit any damage to his own cause. A long shot candidate, like Santorum, he may adopt a strategy of throwing a few haymakers to Romney and Pawlenty, but if he does, they better be good ones. I think he's over his head and tonight, we'll see how he does in the deep end of the GOP pool.
Bachmann-The only undeclared candidate, Bachmann is a brilliant speaker, a quick thinker and intellectually anyone's match tonight. I doubt anyone will tag her too hard, I think she carries a low profile through the debate to give her a little momentum into her official campaign announcement coming up by the end of the month in Iowa. "Do no harm" will be her mantra tonight.
I'll post a recap and my grades after the debate wraps up....
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