Republican Candidates Power Rankings 7/3/11

Good weeks for Mitt Romney and Michelle Bachmann...

1) Mitt Romney-So far, so good for Gov. Romney. He enjoys a very healthy lead in the GOP polls and in terms of fundraising, he is crushing all of his opponents. Gave a speech in a closed down factory in Allentown, PA this week that focused on how bad Obama is as opposed to how great he would be if elected President. Gave several non answers to direct comparison questions. Which is the smart way to go right now. The less details, the harder it is for someone else to go after him. This will continue to work...for a while. Bachmann's official entry into the field diverted attention to her campaign, which is just fine with Team Romney. (Last week: #1)

2) Michelle Bachmann- Busy week for Mrs. Bachmann. Last Sunday, FOX's Chris Wallace asked her straight up if she was a flake, to which she responded that "...she's a serious person." Monday, she officially kicked off her campaign in Iowa and spent the week travelling and doing media interviews. Off all the candidates, Bachmann's the one with the most buzz. That said, she should be concerned that she places only 5th in the Real Clear Politics poll released this morning, behind Romney, Palin, Perry and Cain. The take away from this to me is that two of those names in front of her have yet to declare anything yet. (Last week #2)

3) Herman Cain-Moving up this week to 3rd overall is Godfather Pizza's CEO, Herman Cain. Tied with Bachmann for the highest "Positive Intensity" scores from Gallup. Lost a few high ranking staffers in New Hampshire and Iowa this week. Donations to the Cain effort pulled in 2.5 Million dollars mostly from Tea Party supporters, which is a healthy start. On the other hand, Romney reportedly raised between 15-20 million by the June 30th deadline. Unless Cain absolutely explodes with increased fund-raising, I suspect his ride...however pleasant right now, will be a short one. (Last week #4)




4) Rick Perry-Still undecided but nearing a decision, Perry polls very well as witnessed by the recent Fox news poll which placed him second to only the frontrunner Romney. If he enters the race, he would likely find himself positioned to the right of both Romney and Pawlenty, but to the left of only Michelle Bachmann. Reports suggest he'd have some work to do regarding fund raising, which could effect his ability to improve his face recognition around the Country. With a general sense that the established group of GOP candidates is not that sterling, Perry's appeal could toss him into the upper tier if he chooses to run. (Last week #7)

5) Tim Pawlenty-What's the guy supposed to do? At best he's in the middle to low end of most polls (8th out of 10 in the RCP Poll). Points scored for being the first to lay out his Foreign Policy plan, which had a hawkish flavor to it. Points lost for Minnesota having to shut its State Gov't down. Whether or not it all or some of Pawlenty's fault is up to debate, but count on a few of his GOP peers using it against him if/when they feel he's enough of a threat top warrant attacking. Raised a little over 4 Million in fundraising which is roughly 25% of what Gov. Romney has to spend. Tough sledding ahead for T-Paw. (Last week #3)



6) Sarah Palin-Took a break from her bus tour to fullfill her "jury duty" obligation back in Alaska. Saw her movie, "The Undefeated" debut in selected towns across the US to mixed reviews. Polling second in the both the Gallup and the RCP polls, Palin is still positioned to make quite the splash if she decides to run for POTUS. She got great name recognition, loads of cash, a buzz factor that blows away anyone else's. A Palin campaign, to many, would be thrilling. Well positioned for either direction. Stay out of the race and play king maker, or jump in with little to lose. (Last week #5)



7) Rick Santorum-Nothing surprising from the Santorum camp this week. Signing the Pro-Life and the Balanced Budget Amendment Pledge, Santorum played it safe, doing what most expected him to do. Stated for the record on the Glen Beck TV show "...there's no such thing as Global Warming." His campaign released no data on fundraising, which may be a bad thing. (Last week #8)

8) Newt Gingrich-June can't end fast enough for the former Speaker of the House. Mass defections, residual effects of his comments about Paul Ryan's budget plan, low donor activity, and now reports of his staff being worried about his Tiffany accounts. Maybe he's done. Maybe its over, but I still say this is one of the brightest minds in America and if he can simply get all four wheels back on the road, perhaps he can begin to climb in the polls. (Last week #10)

 9) John Huntsman- The most left leaning Conservative in the field, Huntsman has refused to sign the Americans for Tax Reform anti tax pledge. With low name recognition, bad polling numbers and a mediocre fund raising start (4M+ reported by the end of June), its hard to put a finger on what Huntsman can do to increase his chances. A Huntsman victory will necessarily be one of winning the war of attrition. (Last week #6)

10) Ron Paul-Beating only Gingrich and Huntsman in Gallup's Positive Intensity score, Paul  also has the lowest unfavorable ratings except for Newt Gingrich. Some good news is that he's reported more than 4.5M in end of June fundraising, which is more than Tim Pawlenty or Jon Huntsman have announced. As interesting a candidate as he may be and in spite of how intensely loyal his followers are, Paul has a huge mountain to climb just to be considered something other than a borderline novelty candidate in 2012. (Last week #9)




Overall Rankings: (The lower the score, the better...)


1. Romney - 2
2. Bachmann - 4
3. Cain - 7
4. Pawlenty - 8
5. Palin - 11
6. Perry - 11
7. Huntsman - 15
8. Santorum - 15
9. Gingrich - 18
10. Paul - 19





Sources:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx