Thursday, June 21, 2012

Prediction on SCOTUS Ruling on ACA...

(UPDATE: No decision today, very likely Monday at 10:00am, but if not Monday, then Thursday for almost certain...)

People are asking me what I think the Supreme Court will decide with regard to the upcoming decision on the Affordable Care Act. Experts are of a mixed mind on this. Those in favor feel this is clearly Interstate Commerce and falls under the  umbrella of the Federal Government's right to legislate. Those against it feel it is an over-reach by President Obama and especially finds the Individual Mandate un-Constitutional.

After listening/reading dozens of interviews, articles, etc. on this case, here's where I am on this:

I think the Supreme Court will strike down the Individual Mandate, and potentially (due to no severability clause written into the legislation) the entire law. This Court doesn't seem inclined to support the President on his Administration's interpretation of the Commerce Clause, in my opinion. Also, the mandate is unique and I think will be cast out.

Its safe to say, I hope I'm wrong. I really do. Millions have already benefited from the Affordable Care Act and by the end of 2014, millions more will as well.

Should it be overturned, we'll see the Administration submit something smaller, and less invasive to present to the American people as an alternative. Getting anything as controversial as health care through Congress anytime soon is a long shot, given the partisan differences. It would be a step backwards, for certain...

I hope I'm wrong...

No comments:

Post a Comment