Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Good news for Democrats & Obama, but let's look deeper...

This morning's edition of Roll Call had an interesting article by Stuart Rothenberg related to the keeping of political polls in context.

The gist of Rothenberg's point is that while several metrics do show an improvement for Democrats and even President Obama, its important to understand the dynamics of the various polls. He makes a compelling case that Democrats would be well advised to heed. There's a lot that can happen between now and election day next November and a few nice looking polls just isn't cause for celebration. Certainly not yet.

From the article:

Even more noteworthy, the current 6-point Democratic advantage on the generic ballot is only a little better than the party’s 2-point advantage in October 2010 and is far smaller than its 13-point advantage right before the 2008 elections.
But even if the economy doesn’t move one way or the other decisively, you can bet that the partisan argument will heat up again, putting the president back into focus and into the center of the political discussion.
And when the GOP race ends, probably well before the convention in August, voters will start to compare the two nominees across a large number of dimensions during a very spirited campaign.
I’d bet that only then will independents, who are more sensitive to short-term factors and the national mood, seriously consider the two nominees and decide how they will vote. And only then will we get a reliable handle on the shape of the electorate heading toward Election Day.

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