Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Wayne Allyn Root: Predicted Landslide Win for who???

Wayne Allyn Root is a successful business man who's worn several hats in his career. His website site, "" describes as a "Capitalist Evangelist, Entrepreneur, Former Vice Presidential Nominee, Media Personality, Business Speaker and Best Selling Author." Quite the resume. He also attended Columbia University the same time President Barack Obama did, although Root says he has no recollection of meeting or seeing him.

He's also a sport handicapper, which I suppose gave him the idea that he could make a keen prediction on the 2012 Presidential Election between incumbent Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney.

His first public prediction on the race came back in December 2011, when he predicted Mitt Romney would win the GOP Primary and go on to win the Presidency. Root turned out correct that Romney would win the Republican nomination, so we tip our hat to him on that one. Some might argue that Romney was the most attractive passenger on the GOP clown car and winning that race shouldn't be taken too seriously.

Nonetheless, after the primaries were over in the Spring of 2012, Root again announced his prediction that Romney would beat Barack Obama come November. As recently as October 9th, 2012, Root doubled down on his belief that Romney would defeat President Obama in a "landslide."

Root cited several reasons why he felt this way. He felt the polls were utterly wrong and skewed toward Democrats. He felt that the media wasn't reporting a "mass revulsion" towards Obama across the country, even in some hard core Democratic areas like Massachusetts and Illinois. He claimed that since there were more Republican Governors in power today than there were in 2008, that this would also boost Romney. He cited the changes in electoral vote distribution would benefit states that generally lean Republican.

Mr. Root also felt Romney held a decisive advantage financially over President Obama saying, "What matters is that in 2008 Obama overwhelmed McCain by out-spending him 10 to 1 down the stretch. That won’t happen in 2012. Romney is even, or can out-spend Obama, in the last 2 weeks of the election. That makes a huge difference in the outcome." 

Another advantage for Mr. Romney would be the Christian vote, citing the long lines at Chic-fil-A's earlier this year and the perception that Obama has offended Christians one too many times.

He also explains that since voter's in 2012 have been purged of felons and illegals, Democratic turnout will be down as a result. Root asks, "...What kind of political party relies on felons and people illegally in the country to win elections?"

Finally, he feels that the undecided voters traditionally break for the challenger, in this case, Mr. Romney. In closing, Wayne Allyn Root writes, "This is Carter/Reagan all over again. The same horrible economy. The same economically ignorant fool in the White House bringing misery to Americans. The same economic collapse under the weight of socialist, pro union, soak the rich, demonize the business owners, policies.  

I predict the same result on election day. Mitt Romney in a landslide."


I first heard of Wayne Allyn Root several weeks ago while engaged in a political discussion on facebook. My counterpart suggested my faith in polls and especially Nate Silver's forecasting was unwise. Foolish. Stupid.

You get the idea...

After our conversation ended, I wrote down Mr. Root's name. I wanted to remember to follow up after the election. Just how close would he come with his prediction of a Romney landslide?

Let's take a look...

Total Votes: 

Obama-60,652,149 popular votes
Romney-57, 810, 390 popular votes (Not included are the results from Florida, where Obama holds about a 47 thousand vote lead over Romney.)

Electoral Votes: 

Obama-332 (Including 29 EV's from Florida)

Nate Silver's forecast: 

50 out of 50 States called correctly...

Mr. Root is an interesting and enterprising man. He is ambitious and diverse in his ventures. He was NOT very good at predicting this year's presidential election. He blew it and wasn't remotely close to an accurate prediction. 

I also have to smile when I think back to that conversation where I was ridiculed for choosing Silver's math over Root's gut. I haven't heard from my conversation partner since the election ended. Nor do I expect to. 

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